Realistic expectations
Feb 5, 2015 23:01:35 GMT -5
Post by Raider3G on Feb 5, 2015 23:01:35 GMT -5
I was waiting to post on this one because I wanted to see if a) Kendall played, and b) see how well WSU played.
Right now we are two back in the loss column for second place. There is a total logjam ahead of us, with three teams having two losses. The bad news is we're 0-2 against those teams so far. The good news is we have four games against them, so plenty of time to make up room.
I'm going to assume that we have S. Davis by the UWGB game, which means we have to win at Oakland without him and JT. Even given how well we played tonight, this one is going to be hard. They are big, i.e. Valpo big. But, UDM had height on us and Oakland did lose to UDM by 20. So I think we have a decent chance going into the O'rena.
The problem predicting where this team goes is when do the two guys return, and if Kendall stays healthy. Assuming Kendall stays healthy, and we get S. Davis back by UWGB, I can see this team going 9-7 in the HL. May sound crazy to some, but here's why:
We have UIC twice, and Oakland, UWM, and YSU at home. I think this team, even with just Kendall, can win 4. Throw in S. Davis, and maybe, just maybe 5.
We have a tough road slate...Valpo, CSU, and Oakland. I do think we can snag one of those with just Kendall, and maybe two with S. Davis. We could also have JT back for the Valpo game (3 weeks away).
I am still holding out the possibility of 10-6 so long as S. Davis and Kendall are together on the court from UWGB out, and Yoho comes back by either the Oakland home game or @valpo. There's something about this team that is just telling me they aren't going to go away.
But more importantly, I think there is a good chance that come HL tourney time, we may be the toughest out beside UWGB. If S. Davis and Kendall hang in there, and we get JT back for the last few games, I can see a nice end-of-season run bleeding over into the tourney. This team, if all together, would be a scary out for anybody in a one and done scenario. If you just take a big picture look, our team fully loaded has the best depth at the 1-2-3 spots; we have a legit scoring big man that is improving at the right time and can hang 15-20 when hot; we have a couple knock-down three point shooters; we play tough D; and the rebounding problems should go way down with JT and S. Davis in the line-up.....Lots of "if's" but that's sports....and it also sounds a lot like UWM from last year...
FWIW, in light of us not having KG the rest of the year and no JT until the tourney, if at all, I'd say a realistic expectation is 7-9. I think that off the four remaining home games, we can get at least three of them. I, personally, liked how we played for about 30 of the 40 minutes against UWGB. If we can play like that for a full game against the remaining home competition, I think three wins is realistic. Also, for some reason, I like our chances against Valpo in the return game if we have S. Davis. Between that and the game at UIC, I think one of those is winnable.
Donlon is not winning popularity contests on this board. I get it and I don't. For example, I've been critical of his average record in games decided by six points or less. I also think he's getting better each year as a coach. Besides OSU and UWM, I think this team has played hard and competed night in and night out. So the effort is there. The younger players are improving. Until he went down, S. Davis was getting scary good quick, and JT really improved from last year. Even Karena has improved at both ends of the court.
One thing that I personally want to see this year is what this administration decides if this team can finish the year .500, and win a couple games in the HL tourney. If so, and assuming we go 7-9 in HL play, that would put this team's record 17-16 or something in that range. If the CIT comes calling, should this team play? I say yes. I know this thread is "Realistic Expectations" but it is realistic that we could have the option of one of the lower tier pay to play tourneys. If that opportunity comes, I'd love to see what this team, with some more time together relatively healthy, could do. Such a tourney could really give a nice bounce to next year considering all the injuries and obstacles so far. More practice time for the freshman, time for the junior class to get more time together, etc. I know those "tourney's" are a point of contention on the board, but in the end I think this year (of any) it would have the most benefit for the following season.