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Post by Big D on Feb 10, 2022 21:43:16 GMT -5
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 14, 2022 15:01:20 GMT -5
I did some serious number crunching today in terms of top 4 seed clinching scenarios and any possibilities available to clinching the #1 seed. Since CSU finishes with 5 straight on the road, anything is possible.
Top 4 Seed clinching scenarios:
CSU:
(a) win vs PFW & 1 more win
(b) 3-2 finish (or better)
OAK:
(a) 2 wins & 1 PFW loss
(b) 3 wins
NKU:
(a) 4 wins
(b) 3 wins & 1 loss by PFW or WSU
(c) 2 wins & 2 PFW losses & 1 YSU loss & 1 DET loss
WSU:
(a) 4 wins
(b) 3 wins & 1 PFW loss
(c) 2 wins & 2 PFW losses & 1 YSU loss & 1 DET loss
PFW:
(a) Win final 5 games + 1 loss by either WSU or NKU
(b) Win final 5 games + 1 additional Oakland loss
(c) Win 4 of 5 + 2 WSU losses OR 2 NKU losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
(d) Win 4 of 5 + 3 Oakland losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
(e) Win 3 of 5 + Oakland lose out
(f) Win 3 of 5 + 3 NKU losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
(g) Win 3 of 5 + 3 WSU losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
YSU:
(a) win final 4 games + 2 PFW losses + 1 add'l loss by NKU or WSU
(b) win final 4 games + 2 FPW losses + 3 OAK losses
#1 Seed clinching scenarios:
CSU:
(a) Win out
(b) Win 4 of remaining 5
(c) Win 3 of remaining 5 + 1 OAK loss
OAK:
(a) Beat NKU & CSU & either WSU or PFW & 2 additional CSU losses
(b) Win out & CSU lose one other game
NKU:
(a) Win out + 1 other OAK loss + 3 CSU losses
WSU:
(a) Win out + 1 other OAK loss + 3 CSU losses + 1 NKU loss
OAK would clinch the #2 seed with wins over WSU and NKU.
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Post by raidergrad98 on Feb 14, 2022 15:35:15 GMT -5
Just got around to reading this. Well researched and covered the subject well. I'm not one for defending the HL, but as I've said in another thread, the fault lies with the UIC administration and that's who their student athletes should be upset with. But then again, when's the last time someone stood up and did the right thing? Won't be this time either. |
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 14, 2022 22:30:01 GMT -5
Updated after CSU and UIC games went final.
I did some serious number crunching today in terms of top 4 seed clinching scenarios and any possibilities available to clinching the #1 seed. Since CSU finishes with 4 straight on the road, anything is possible.
Top 4 Seed clinching scenarios:
CSU:
(a) 3 wins in final 4 games.
OAK:
(a) 2 wins & 1 PFW loss
(b) 3 wins
NKU:
(a) 4 wins
(b) 3 wins & 1 loss by PFW or WSU
(c) 2 wins & 2 PFW losses & 1 YSU loss & 1 DET loss
WSU:
(a) 4 wins
(b) 3 wins & 1 PFW loss
(c) 2 wins & 2 PFW losses & 1 YSU loss & 1 DET loss
PFW:
(a) Win final 4 games + 1 loss by either WSU or NKU
(b) Win final 4 games + 1 additional Oakland loss
(c) Win 3 of 4 + 2 WSU losses OR 2 NKU losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
(d) Win 3 of 4 + 3 Oakland losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
(e) Win 2 of 4 + Oakland lose out
(f) Win 2 of 4 + 3 NKU losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
(g) Win 2 of 4 + 3 WSU losses + 1 YSU loss + 1 DET loss
YSU:
(a) win final 4 games + 2 PFW losses + 1 add'l loss by NKU or WSU
(b) win final 4 games + 2 FPW losses + 3 OAK losses
#1 Seed clinching scenarios:
CSU:
(a) Win last 4 remaining games
(c) Win 3 of remaining 4 + 1 OAK loss
OAK:
(a) Beat NKU & CSU & either WSU or PFW & 1 additional CSU losses
(b) Win out
NKU:
(a) Win out + 1 other OAK loss + 2 CSU losses
WSU:
(a) Win out + 1 other OAK loss + 2 CSU losses + 1 NKU loss
OAK would clinch the #2 seed with wins over WSU and NKU.
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Post by guyinstandswithbeer on Feb 15, 2022 9:03:45 GMT -5
You wasted a whole lot of time compiling all the scenarios you just listed. We all know Wright State isn't getting the number 1 seed and with the way we have been playing we are probably a one and done in the HL tournament. This team has a talent issue once you get past our top 5 and more importantly a toughness issue.
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 15, 2022 14:42:48 GMT -5
UIC is back in the mix apparently:
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Post by Dr J on Feb 15, 2022 17:28:13 GMT -5
UIC is back in the mix apparently: Might as well take that out of By Laws. |
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Post by Raider Fanatic on Feb 18, 2022 14:56:36 GMT -5
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 18, 2022 23:15:31 GMT -5
After the win, we control our own destiny to the #3 seed. The path to the #1 seed requires 2 losses by CSU (@gb, @det, @oak, so entirely possible). The path to the #2 seed requires winning out and one more Oakland loss (NKU, PFW, CSU, so also entirely possible). There are still 6 teams in contention for the 4 byes, but Detroit's path is on life support due to their low number of league games played this season.
The real winner of tonight's games was CSU, who can lock up the #1 seed by winning 2 of their final 3, or by winning one and Oakland taking one more loss.
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Post by Raider3G on Feb 19, 2022 8:19:31 GMT -5
After the win, we control our own destiny to the #3 seed. The path to the #1 seed requires 2 losses by CSU (@gb, @det, @oak, so entirely possible). The path to the #2 seed requires winning out and one more Oakland loss (NKU, PFW, CSU, so also entirely possible) CSU is 4-3 its last seven games, so they aren't exactly trending dominant right now. Agree...definitely can see them losing both on the Detroit swing, especially since UDM and OU will have lots to also play for. Maybe this will be the most unlikely WSU regular champ in Nagy's stretch? Its just been good to see the bench finally step up very recently to score key buckets and play defense. |
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Post by Rush the Court on Feb 19, 2022 8:33:49 GMT -5
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 20, 2022 17:15:55 GMT -5
Cleveland State's victory coupled with Oakland's loss has clinched the regular season championship and #1 seed for CSU.
In the meantime, Oakland has fallen to 5th, PFW is now in 2nd, NKU has leap frogged us into 3rd, and we sit in 4th.
Behind CSU, it is utter chaos. There are 6 teams vying for 3 spots, and nobody else has locked up anything.
PFW & NKU both control their destiny to the #2 seed. Wright State can steal the #2 seed by winning out & a loss by both NKU and PFW.
Oakland, YSU, and Detroit all have paths to a top 4 seed, but will require a 2-0 finish in all likelihood.
PFW is arguably the league's hottest team and has to travel to Oakland who is up against the wall after their weekend sweep. If Oakland can bounce back, then WSU can play for the 3 seed by winning out unless NKU can stumble, giving us a path to the 2. It also knocks PFW out of the top 4 and gives Oakland the inside track where PFW will need a road win at Detroit and some help to get back into the mix on the league's last day.
The only team really on the outside looking in is Detroit, who will need to knock off CSU, PFW, and need some help to get into the top 4. One loss, at this point, doesn't mathematically eliminate them, but it would take a mutiny of strange results to allow them to play into the top 4.
It's going to be a wild finish.
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Post by commissioner on Feb 21, 2022 10:44:01 GMT -5
PFW & NKU both control their destiny to the #2 seed. This can't be right, since they don't play each other. I think you mean to at least a top 3 seed for NKU. |
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 21, 2022 11:31:08 GMT -5
PFW & NKU both control their destiny to the #2 seed. This can't be right, since they don't play each other. I think you mean to at least a top 3 seed for NKU. With 512 possible outcomes, there is a ton to still be decided. I tried to run some scenarios being an Excel guy, but the possibilities are really too vast to figure seeding out now, but you are correct, I made an error in my prior post. Simply put, whoever of PFW, NKU, WSU, OAK, and YSU go 2-0 this weekend, they earn a first round bye. Simple as that. Detroit needs some serious help to get there, but there are paths, but likely require at least one team to go 0-2. CSU has locked up #1. Every other team can finish as high as 2 (Detroit can only finish as high as 3 I believe) and as low as 7. Just as fast as Oakland fell from 2 to 5, PFW can fall from 2 to a tiebreaker scenario for 6th, and there's even a path for Detroit to go from 7 to 3. I think the real victim of the weekend could be PFW. They've been hot; very hot. But Oakland is backed into a corner, and Detroit has one of the nation's longest home winning streaks. They could easily fall from having a buy at #2 to hosting the 7/10 or 6/11 game. |
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 24, 2022 21:11:05 GMT -5
Going into Saturday's games, I believe these are the clinching scenarios:
CSU, PFW, & NKU have secured a top four seed.
Clev St Secured #1 seed
PFW Secures #2 with win
PFW Falls to #3 with loss and win by either WSU or NKU
PFW Falls to #4 with loss and wins by WSU & NKU
NKU Secures #2 with win & loss by PFW
NKU Secures #3 with win
NKU Falls to #4 with a loss & WSU win
WSU Secures #2 with a win and a loss by PFW & NKU
WSU Secures #3 with a win and a loss by either PFW or NKU
WSU Secures #4 with a win or DET loss
DET Secures #4 seed with win & WSU loss. (cannot earn higher than 4)
All other teams are eliminated from earning a top 4 seed.
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