New 3 point line

[Raider Alumni]

How the new three-point line will affect the game
Luke Winn
June 19, 2008

Butler didn't waste any time. In the days following the Bulldogs' NCAA tournament loss to Tennessee in March, players returned to Hinkle Fieldhouse and found, "that we had already painted in the new [three-point] line," said coach Brad Stevens. "We wanted to get them adjusted to it as soon as possible." The same transformation has happened this offseason on gym floors across America, as college teams prepare for the expansion of the NCAA's arc from 19 feet, nine inches to 20 feet, nine inches, but the move may matter more at Butler, which relied on the three for a higher percentage of its points (40.8) last season than any other NCAA tournament team. How much the Bulldogs' livelihood will be affected -- and how much impact the longer trey has across the board -- will be the most closely monitored trend of 2008-09.

What not to expect from the one-foot rule is a revolution. As changes go, the 19-9 to 20-9 jump pales in comparison to the addition of the arc itself (in 1986-87), the repeal of the dunking ban ('76-77), or the institution of the NBA's 19-year-old age limit (in '06-07). Those created eras. The impact of this change will be more subtle. Here are four ways it could affect next season:

1. Mid-Majors Will Be Hit The Hardest.
In the narrow context of upsets -- particularly in NCAA-tournament opening-round games -- the three has long been considered the Great Equalizer for David against Goliath. But have we considered how many of the nation's best mid-majors take a season-long approach that's focused on the three-pointer?

Of the 65 teams in last year's NCAA tournament field, these 10 relied on treys for the highest percentage of their points across the entire season:
1. Butler 40.9
2. Belmont 39.5
3. Drake 38.4
4. Portland St. 36.8
5. American 36.4
6. Davidson 34.4
7. Oregon 34.2
8. Georgetown 34.1
9. Vanderbilt 33.4
10. BYU 33.1

The top six in the chart above is essentially a collection of many of the nation's best mid-majors. Such a three-point-centric approach makes sense -- size is a scarce commodity that tends to be snatched up by powerhouses, and the smartest little guys often stay competitive on a national level by building collections of shooters who were undervalued on the recruiting trail. At times last season Butler put a lineup of five three-point threats -- seniors Julian Betko, Pete Campbell, A.J. Graves, Mike Green and Drew Streicher -- on the floor and patiently waited for its best look from beyond the arc.

None of these teams are going to abandon the three. As Stevens said, "the really good shooters, who were already making 40 percent, will still be able to make them." But with coaches likely to be more judicious about which players are green-lighted, can a scoring model with more than 35 percent of points coming on treys still be effective over the long-term?

2. The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated.
As if North Carolina really needed more of an advantage after having Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green stay out of the NBA draft, the Heels happen to be the team best-built to take advantage of the new line. It was no surprise that when the three-point expansion was announced in 2007, coach Roy Williams said that he was "certainly glad the committee did not widen the lane along with moving the three-point line" -- because his offense is overwhelmingly centered on getting the ball into the lane, while keeping the floor spaced with the threat of shooters such as Ellington and Green.

Despite having gunners in its backcourt, Carolina scored a lower percentage of its points from beyond the arc than any other NCAA tournament team last season. Just 18.8 percent of the Heels' points came on threes, while 59.9 percent came on twos and 21.4 came from the free-throw line. This is what happens when you have the frequently unstoppable Hansbrough camping out in the paint, and the speedy Lawson pushing toward the hoop on the break.

Below are the 10 NCAA tournament teams, beginning with UNC, who relied on the three the least in '08-09:
1. North Carolina 18.8
2. UConn 19.7
3. Coppin St. 20.7
4. Michigan St. 20.9
5. UCLA 21.8
6. San Diego 22.1
7. Miss. Valley St. 22.4
8. Stanford 23.4
9. Arkansas 23.9
10. USC 24.2

The No. 2 team on the list above, UConn, is likely to be the No. 2 team behind Carolina in most preseason polls. The Huskies are built in similar fashion, in that guards A.J. Price and Jerome Dyson need to be guarded beyond the arc -- but they would much rather score via penetration or feeds to big men Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet. Doubling-down on that duo will only be more difficult with the new three-point line. The rich keep getting richer.

3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive.
In a study published on Basketball Prospectus in February, Ken Pomeroy analyzed shot distance, frequency and accuracy from nearly 4,000 games over the previous five seasons. The two key things to take away from his findings: That there's significantly less accuracy on twos taken beyond five feet than there is on close threes; and that, to quote Ken, "Teams taking mid-range shots -- especially early in the shot clock -- are just making life easy for the defense more often than not."

The teams that already understand how to take away threes and force twos without fouling -- suggesting that many of those twos are taken in the mid-range, rather than the paint -- are probably best-suited to use the extra space to their advantage. The two best examples are Duke and UCLA, both of whom ranked below 250th in both percentage of threes and free-throws allowed last season. (As a result, Duke finished ninth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and UCLA finished third.) The key question for both of them this season will be whether the extra foot that their defenses extend on the perimeter opens up too many easy scoring chances in the paint. If they can limit the damage and stick to their old strategy, they should thrive.

Here are the 10 NCAA tournament teams from last season that allowed the lowest percentage of their points on treys:
Duke 21.2
St. Mary's 21.4
Clemson 21.7
Marquette 23.5
Memphis 24.0
Miss. Valley St. 24.1
Mount St. Mary's 24.3
Arizona 24.5
UCLA 24.6
Western Ky. 24.7

4. Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect.
Stevens said he thinks the "average" three-point shooter -- presumably who hits them at a low-30s clip, and may have been green-lighted at 19-9 -- might see the biggest drop-off, or be cut off from shooting threes altogether. So it makes sense to look at which good teams from last season weren't phenomenal marksmen from long distance; will these teams' marginal shooting abilities become too big of a liability with the new line?

Kansas State, which didn't have a three-point shooter above 32 percent -- other than the since-departed Michael Beasley -- in its rotation, might be in trouble next season. But the most interesting case study will be at Pittsburgh, which was seventh-worst on that list. Last season, defenses were kept honest by the shooting of junior Sam Young (38.3 percent, 44 threes) and seniors Ronald Ramon (37.2 percent, 67 threes) and Keith Benjamin (37.0 percent, 51 threes). The Panthers' overall percentage was dragged down by the abysmal aim of point guard Levance Fields (27.7 percent, 28 threes) and Gilbert Brown (24.4 percent, 19 threes) -- both of whom will likely be in the starting lineup now that Ramon and Benjamin are gone.

If defenses sag down against Fields' penetration, and use help to double super-sophomore DeJuan Blair in the post, can Pitt make them pay? The Panthers are finding their way into plenty of preseason top 10s, but they won't be a contender without being able to pose some semblance of a threat from beyond 20-9.



sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/luke_winn/06/19/three.point/index.html?eref=T1

[Bomber]

I think the new 3 point line is just going to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Shooters can shoot. One foot isn't going to matter.

[Bomber]

Todd Brown should have much less trouble with the new 3 point line than anyone else. He routinely shot from 2-3 feet behind the arc last season.

Todd is just as good three point shooter as Vaughn. Todd is a lifetime 39% (90/230) three point shooter. Vaughn is a lifetime 38% (97/256) three point shooter.

[OG Raiderfan]

Todd should have no trouble with the new 3 point line.

[bballraider]

I remember in the PNIT games (Tulsa), they moved the line back for testing, and it made very little difference in the way the game was played. The guys that could shoot, still shot and made about the same percentages.

If you are a good shooter, which most of our perimeter players are, then it should not make much of a difference. If you are not a good shooter, then you shouldn't be shooting from 19'9" either.

[Doliboabros]

Jun 25, 2008 19:58:20 GMT -5 bballraider said:

I remember in the PNIT games (Tulsa), they moved the line back for testing, and it made very little difference in the way the game was played. The guys that could shoot, still shot and made about the same percentages.

If you are a good shooter, which most of our perimeter players are, then it should not make much of a difference. If you are not a good shooter, then you shouldn't be shooting from 19'9" either.

I agree. I don't think it will affect us much. If anything, Will, Gavin and Ronnie might be told to stop shooting 3s, but I don't think any of them should have been shooting out there last year either.

[Glory Days]

Is one foot back on the 3-point line a step forward for NCAA hoops?
By Andy Katz
July 11, 2008

AKRON, Ohio -- One after the other, the 3-point shots were off the mark. It was just a drill with some of the top college guards in the country at the LeBron James Skills Academy.


It doesn't mean much since it was just a random Tuesday in early July. But throughout the drill, a few players glanced down to make sure they were behind the right 3-point line -- the new 3-point line, one that is a foot farther back than it has been.

Next season, the 3-point line will move from 19 feet, 9 inches to 20 feet, 9 inches. That by itself could be an issue for plenty of players, regardless of position. But making the issue more confusing, the women didn't move their line back. So, in the majority of arenas, where the men and women play on the same court, there will be two lines marking the 3-point line, as was the case at Akron's Rhodes Arena earlier this week.

"It's hard to tell what line you're behind when you're pulling up," said Gonzaga sophomore wing Austin Daye. "It's hard to look down, so you have to have the instinct to know where you are."

Akron's women's 3-point line was the traditional black that matched the outline of the lane. The new 3-point line was white.

"It's very distracting," said South Carolina junior guard Devan Downey. "We're one of those schools where the men and women play on the same court, so you've got to be mentally ready. If you take the 3, you need to make sure you're taking the new one, not the old 3. You don't want to hit a big shot and it's a 2, not a 3."

Arizona State sophomore guard James Harden said he believes some shooters might adjust their form for the longer shot.

"One foot is a big difference," North Carolina coach Roy Williams said. "Percentages will go down for some. It was good that we kept the lane the same so there will be more separation [between the lane and the 3-point line] so we won't clog [the middle] up. Everybody may go down, and a marginal 3-point shooter may now be below marginal."

A number of coaches expressed concern about how officials will handle the two-line discrepancy, especially early in the season.

"It may depend on which line is the darker color," Oklahoma coach Jeff Capel said. "At our place, the women's line will be the dark line like it always has been and ours will be lighter. It may be difficult for the officials to determine. Everyone has to be really focused to get it right."

Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl said the biggest change will come with more zone defense and less hedging out to challenge a shooter.

That's a problem for some teams, but not all. Davidson's Stephen Curry said his team's spacing is so good, so wide, that 1 foot won't make a difference in how the Wildcats shoot or are defended.

Curry's coach, Bob McKillop, was coaching the U.S. Under-18 national team in Washington, D.C., this week as it prepared for the competition next week in Argentina. He said terminology will be a problem for him. He said he regularly tells players to get to the top of the 3-point spot, but is that the top of the circle at the lane (the women's line) or the new 3-point line a foot back?

"It will be confusing for the players, no matter what we say now," McKillop said Wednesday after practice at the Washington Wizards' training facility at the Verizon Center. "I wish we had a standard line across every level of play, college, FIBA, the NBA."

Pearl insisted that the most controversial issue will be more stoppage of play for officials to review replays on whether the shot was a 3-pointer or a 2-pointer. Officials can review scoring and timing issues but not judgment calls.

John Clougherty, the ACC's coordinator of officials, who was watching referees at the LeBron camp, said the issue came up at the league's spring meetings. Clougherty said schools must make the lines different colors.

"We want to get it right," Clougherty said. He added that officials won't hesitate to review more shots if there are questions because of the two lines, especially early in the season as everyone is adjusting to the new rule.

If there was a consensus, though, it is that the skilled shooting big men, the power forwards and centers, who can step out and shoot 3s will be affected most by the increased distance.

"Those bigs may not shoot it from that line as much as they had," Baylor coach Scott Drew said. "A lot of teams have their 4s and 5s shoot that shot. They may not now."

The 1-foot change "may throw them off," said Miami guard Jack McClinton of the shooting bigs.

But not every team's big men are that tied to 19-9.

"You'll still see Tyler [Hansbrough] shoot some this year, and you'll see [incoming freshman] Tyler Zeller, too," Williams said. "Both those guys can shoot them."

Not everyone is buying that a foot ultimately will make much of a difference. Syracuse's Jonny Flynn said players have all summer to work on increasing their range. He said there is plenty of time to make an adjustment.

Baylor point guard Curtis Jerrells said point guards should have the peripheral vision to see whether a wing is on the right line before giving up the pass to a shooter. Drew said his players take deep 3s anyway.

"I never toed the line anyway," McClinton said. "A lot of my shots were NBA 3s."

VCU coach Anthony Grant, a U19 team assistant to McKillop with Georgetown's John Thompson III, said Wednesday in D.C. that players want to shoot a deeper 3-pointer so he doesn't anticipate a problem, either.

"I may be in the minority," Thompson said. "But I don't think it will be a problem. In a perfect world, sooner or later the women and men will have the same line. Aesthetically, it's ugly to have lines all over the court. That line, though, is in your head, and if you look back before there were lines, guys took longer shots. Players are trained to go to that 19-9 line and start shooting from there. From now, they'll start shooting [from the new line]. It won't be a big deal."

sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3481963