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Post by gerb on Dec 23, 2016 12:35:08 GMT -5
Halfway through the season seems like as good a time as any to start this thread. HL RPI going in to conference play (plus some cursory notes I have picked up) 65 Valpo (8-3) - Only losses were to top 6 teams and what seems to be a fluke 2OT game vs. Santa Clara (275) last night. 124 Wright State (7-4) 148 Northern Kentucky (7-3) 155 UWGB (4-6) 187 Cleveland St (3-8) 218 Oakland (7-3) - Oakland's RPI is deceptive. Their only blemishes are a four-point loss to Nevada (38), a buzzer beater against Northeastern (137), and a 12-point loss to Michigan State a day later. They are dangerous. Also, this happened234 Youngstown St (4-7) 243 UIC (5-6) - POY candidate Dikembe Dixson was injured a few games back and is out for the year. 279 UWM (3-9) 310 Detroit (1-10) Not only did they just pick up their first D1 win, three of their four single-digit losses came in December. Definitely trending upwards and clearly primed to tear through league play. |
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Post by hhgreen on Dec 23, 2016 13:54:22 GMT -5
NKU plays West Virginia tonight so I might have to watch that game.
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Post by rock70 on Dec 23, 2016 14:26:33 GMT -5
NKU plays West Virginia tonight so I might have to watch that game. Also Oakland plays Georgia tonight on ESPN3 at 7pm Northern Kentucky game is at 4pm |
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Post by rock70 on Dec 23, 2016 22:49:35 GMT -5
NKU plays West Virginia tonight so I might have to watch that game. Also Oakland plays Georgia tonight on ESPN3 at 7pm Northern Kentucky game is at 4pm Oakland beats Georgia 86-79. Big win for the Horizon League! |
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Post by gerb on Dec 23, 2016 22:54:38 GMT -5
Also Oakland plays Georgia tonight on ESPN3 at 7pm Northern Kentucky game is at 4pm Oakland beats Georgia 86-79. Big win for the Horizon League! Oakland is sneaky good. They're three baskets away from being a one-loss team. |
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Post by Dr J on Dec 24, 2016 18:07:08 GMT -5
This Raider team has some offensive fire power. We are just now getting the chemistry of team play. They are now learning about Coach Nagy's offense and defense. They could be a lot better than anyone anticipated.
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Post by hhgreen on Dec 25, 2016 0:26:41 GMT -5
One thing I think is happening the coach is getting better at recognizing when someone needs pulled out for a bit. Alstork is starting to realize when teams are putting pressure on him and what he needs to do to get others in the game. Going to be a better year than we all thought.
Hopefully recruiting is going well. Flying to the Hoop Tournament might get Nagy some leads on some talent.
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Post by Dr J on Dec 25, 2016 14:06:23 GMT -5
The latest RPI still has conference at 18 but we have gained ground on those closest to us except IVY League which gained more than Horizon. We are within striking distance of 14th. We need the teams our schools beat to do well in their conferences. Hopefully, Valpo, WSU and Northern Kentucky or Oakland dominate the conference play.
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Post by mrose on Dec 27, 2016 16:20:51 GMT -5
Dr J, about the best the HL can do is jump over the Summit to 17th best RPI. The HL, as a group, played the 20th rated out-of-conference strength-of-schedule. Only 4 conferences ahead of the HL played a combined weaker non-conference sos: West Coast #21, Sun Belt #29, Metro Atlantic #24, and Summit #23. Only the Summit and HL had losing records vs that weak schedule, 47-59 and 50-60 respectively.
There's just too much ground to make up with other conferences. In fact, it might be that the HL loses ground. The Southland (RPI #19) played the 6th toughest non-con schedule and could make up ground on the HL.
Here's how putrid the combined non-con schedule was for the HL. The Horizon League played only 4 games vs current top 25 RPI programs. Only one conference had fewer games vs top competition...The MEAC. The MEAC played 3 games vs. Top 25 RPI schools. Only three conferences played fewer games vs. Top 50 RPI programs than the HL's total of 11 games. The WAC (10), Atlantic Sun (10), and Big Sky (10).
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Post by gerb on Dec 27, 2016 18:46:18 GMT -5
This obviously is not a banner year for the league, but things are going to improve quickly. As I mentioned elsewhere, a majority of the league - six teams - are in total rebuilding mode and two of the remaining four are good enough to take down some big boys. This year is what it is, but about two or three years from now, the HL is going to be turning some heads. Here's why:
Steady Regimess:
- Oakland is under a steady hand with Kampe, who won't be lured away by anyone. They're always poised to pull a big upset and will never be a bad team.
- Valpo is in its first season without a Drew at the helm since 1988, but they hired from within and should remain a force to be reckoned with as long as Homer is around in the athletic department.
New and Improved:
- Wright State - I think we're all pretty familiar with the program. No need to waste keystrokes.
- UIC - These guys will be very good very soon. Steve McClain has really brought up their recruiting since taking over last year. With reigning Newcomer of the Year Dikembe Dixson out the rest of the season, they might not be a huge force right now, but next year they'll have him, Odiase as a senior, and another 3-star recruit at power forward. I'm putting UIC as Most Likely To Blow the Hell Up In Two Years.
- Northern Kentucky - new to the league, new to D-1, new to the coaching staff. They're as green as you can be as a D-1 program, BUT they're currently sitting at 9-4 (7-4 D1) with a 138 RPI and a nice little 22-point blowout of a top 80 team in their cap. They also only graduate one scholarship player. They're young and they're getting confident.
- UWGB - Coach Linc Darner came to Green Bay last season immediately after winning a D-II national championship. He then took the Phoenix to the Dance in his first year. Dude clearly knows how to win. This year's not going as well as one would hope, but it'll take a minute to get used to D-1 recruiting, etc. They are in good hands.
Tough Sells:
- UWM - Lavall Jordan is in his first year as a head coach after spending six years as an assistant for Michigan (who hired Billy Donlon as a replacement), and he's got a project on his hands. The Panthers started off strong with a 30-point blowout against the Milwaukee School of Engineering, but lost that momentum early. Their only double digit scorer will graduate after this season. This will be a process.
- Detroit - This is going to sound familiar: Bacai Alexander is in his first year as a head coach after spending six years as an assistant for Michigan (who hired Billy Donlon as a replacement) and he's got a project on his hands. Ray McCallum ran the program for eight years and owes about six of those to his son and Eli Holman, who he brought with him from Indiana. The talent isn't there as a result of his recruiting and it'll take years before Detroit is back to winning.
Unsteady Regimes:
- Cleveland State - Something flipped at CSU over the last few seasons and they've been hemorrhaging players. I don't know what happened there, but Waters definitely earned his contract from his prior accomplishments. That contract runs through two more seasons after which, he'll likely retire. There's a slim chance he could still capture that old magic before then.
- Youngstown State - *sigh* Whatever. Slocum must have pictures on one of the higher-ups there or something. They're going to be what they're going to be and we'll have to keep living with it.
So by my count that's six teams in good to great shape, two who should slowly improve in the long term, Gary Waters's ride into the sunset, and, for some unfathomable reason, Jerry freakin' Slocum. I'm optimistic.
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Post by Raider Fanatic on Dec 28, 2016 12:28:18 GMT -5
This obviously is not a banner year for the league, but things are going to improve quickly. Gerb, you have been on this board long enough to know that you hear someone say the same thing year after year after year. The HL is what it is. It hasn't been a conference on the rise for quite some time. It's currently a conference on a steady decline. We should have all figured that out when we added NKU to the conference. If we were still a conference on the rise we should have been able to attract a program that added something to the conference like Belmont, Murry State, etc. We added a school that wasn't even fully D1 yet and the main reason we added them was because they fit our geography. In regards to your team by team breakdown, I have a different take. - Oakland is a powder keg. Kampe keeps bringing in kids that have been booted from other schools. That is going to come back and bite them hard one day. I thought it was 2 years ago when several of their players were arrested in California on a road trip. They ended up not getting charged but several were sent home before the road trip was over. You cannot keep bringing in problem children and not expect it to blow up in your face eventually. - Valpo is without a Drew for the first time in most HL fan's lifetime. Their new coach is doing well so far with the last Drew's recruits. I am curious to see if they can maintain that success over time. I'm not sold yet. - UIC has a coach that can recruit in Steve McClain. I'm not convinced he can coach. He easily has more talent on his roster already than we do. They didn't play a great OOC schedule. They should have won more games than they did. - Northern Kentucky made a good hire in first time head coach. He has done a great job recruiting so far and is already having some success on the court. The real question for them long term is how long will they keep their coach there and will they be able to hit lighting in a bottle again with their next hire. - UWGB: Coach Linc Darner tried to leave Green Bay after his first year there. I don't see Green Bay having any type of long term success under him because he is Brad Brownell 2.0. He is going to have 1 foot out the door his whole tenure there. - UWM is in a total state of disarray. They have had a revolving door of ADs ever since we have been in the HL with them. Their finances are screwed up because of it and they couldn't find a head coach with experience that wanted to step foot into that situation. - Detroit isn't in a whole lot better situation than UWM. They have had recent scandals with their ADs. One was sleeping with an assistant men's basketball coach just a few years ago. Their biggest problem is they are in a dying city. They have little financial resources. They don't have a big donor base and they have a very small fan base. - Cleveland State is very similar to Detroit in the fact that they don't have financial resources and no means to get them. They should have canned Waters several years ago but they didn't because they couldn't afford his buyout and a new coach at the same time. - YSU should have never been invited to the conference. All they care about is football and will never make the type of commitment they need to contribute to the HL in basketball. You didn't address Wright State, but you should have. We are in a very scary position this year. We are hiring a new school president soon. The school has made some very poor real estate decisions and the whole presidential debate fiasco that has all resulted in the university having to spend a lot of money we didn't have to spend. If we bring in a president who's only concern is to cut costs to get us into a more financially stable situation, athletics could be in a lot of trouble. If we hire an intelligent man or woman that understands that schools with good athletics have higher enrollments and get more alumni donations we could be in good shape. We will have to wait and see. The next question is, will a new president want to bring in his own man as AD. I am very mixed on Grant. Starting over with a new AD could be very good or very bad for athletics. Once again, we will have to wait and see. In regards to our men's program, we could be losing 3/5 of this year's starting lineup at the end of the season. Davis and Latulip graduate. Alstork could graduate and transfer. Nagy only signed 1 kid in the early signing period. He needs to have one hell of a great finish to recruiting in the late signing period if we are going to be any good next year. |
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Post by gerb on Jan 2, 2017 12:00:36 GMT -5
As of today: Monday, January 2 | Team | RPI | Conf. W-L | W-L Total | | Valpo | 68 | 1-0 | 11-3 | | Oakland | 128 | 2-0 | 12-3 | | UWGB | 139 | 2-0 | 8-6 | | NKU | 140 | 1-1 | 10-5 | | Wright State | 144 | 1-1 | 10-5 | | Youngstown St | 226 | 1-1 | 7-8 | | Cleveland St | 239 | 1-1 | 5-9 | | UIC | 250 | 0-1 | 7-7 | | Milwaukee | 289 | 0-2 | 4-11 | | Detroit | 311 | 0-2 | 2-12 |
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Post by gerb on Jan 2, 2017 12:33:14 GMT -5
This obviously is not a banner year for the league, but things are going to improve quickly. Gerb, you have been on this board long enough to know that you hear someone say the same thing year after year after year. The HL is what it is. It hasn't been a conference on the rise for quite some time. It's currently a conference on a steady decline. We should have all figured that out when we added NKU to the conference. If we were still a conference on the rise we should have been able to attract a program that added something to the conference like Belmont, Murry State, etc. We added a school that wasn't even fully D1 yet and the main reason we added them was because they fit our geography. In regards to your team by team breakdown, I have a different take. - Oakland is a powder keg. Kampe keeps bringing in kids that have been booted from other schools. That is going to come back and bite them hard one day. I thought it was 2 years ago when several of their players were arrested in California on a road trip. They ended up not getting charged but several were sent home before the road trip was over. You cannot keep bringing in problem children and not expect it to blow up in your face eventually. - Valpo is without a Drew for the first time in most HL fan's lifetime. Their new coach is doing well so far with the last Drew's recruits. I am curious to see if they can maintain that success over time. I'm not sold yet. - UIC has a coach that can recruit in Steve McClain. I'm not convinced he can coach. He easily has more talent on his roster already than we do. They didn't play a great OOC schedule. They should have won more games than they did. - Northern Kentucky made a good hire in first time head coach. He has done a great job recruiting so far and is already having some success on the court. The real question for them long term is how long will they keep their coach there and will they be able to hit lighting in a bottle again with their next hire. - UWGB: Coach Linc Darner tried to leave Green Bay after his first year there. I don't see Green Bay having any type of long term success under him because he is Brad Brownell 2.0. He is going to have 1 foot out the door his whole tenure there. - UWM is in a total state of disarray. They have had a revolving door of ADs ever since we have been in the HL with them. Their finances are screwed up because of it and they couldn't find a head coach with experience that wanted to step foot into that situation. - Detroit isn't in a whole lot better situation than UWM. They have had recent scandals with their ADs. One was sleeping with an assistant men's basketball coach just a few years ago. Their biggest problem is they are in a dying city. They have little financial resources. They don't have a big donor base and they have a very small fan base. - Cleveland State is very similar to Detroit in the fact that they don't have financial resources and no means to get them. They should have canned Waters several years ago but they didn't because they couldn't afford his buyout and a new coach at the same time. - YSU should have never been invited to the conference. All they care about is football and will never make the type of commitment they need to contribute to the HL in basketball. You didn't address Wright State, but you should have. We are in a very scary position this year. We are hiring a new school president soon. The school has made some very poor real estate decisions and the whole presidential debate fiasco that has all resulted in the university having to spend a lot of money we didn't have to spend. If we bring in a president who's only concern is to cut costs to get us into a more financially stable situation, athletics could be in a lot of trouble. If we hire an intelligent man or woman that understands that schools with good athletics have higher enrollments and get more alumni donations we could be in good shape. We will have to wait and see. The next question is, will a new president want to bring in his own man as AD. I am very mixed on Grant. Starting over with a new AD could be very good or very bad for athletics. Once again, we will have to wait and see. In regards to our men's program, we could be losing 3/5 of this year's starting lineup at the end of the season. Davis and Latulip graduate. Alstork could graduate and transfer. Nagy only signed 1 kid in the early signing period. He needs to have one hell of a great finish to recruiting in the late signing period if we are going to be any good next year. I will admit that I just did some cursory research on UWGB for the sake of completing the post. Even if that is the case, the guy needs to win before he gets out. It understand it's not going to be a legacy and he might split soon. That said, he's got to win before he leaves. How is it bad for the league to have a winning team? Kampe is going nowhere until he retires. He's as much a part of the fabric of his university as any coach in the country. Morals and methods may be questionable, but if those kids are going to end up somewhere, OU will get wins out of them. With Valpo's regime change (which I can still see as something akin to The Butler Way *shudder* on a smaller scale), Oakland is the steadiest hand in the league until Kampe retires. We're pretty much in agreement on everything else, with the possible exception of UIC. I think McClain was given an absolute shit pile to start with and hasn't had a lot of success early. This one is more of a hunch, but I think they'll be fine in the long run. As for WSU...hoo boy! The sky ain't falling yet. Let's hope for the best. |
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Post by gerb on Jan 8, 2017 15:30:09 GMT -5
Forewarning: This may sound counterintuitive and perhaps downright stupid, but stick with me here.
This is a rebuilding year, obviously, and with last night's loss to YSU, our only realistic hope of a legit postseason is winning the conference tourney. Maybe we get a spot in a third-tier tournament, but that takes cash out of our pocket and I can see a lot of people (myself included) not supporting that. I have arrived at the conclusion that, in order to get the most out of our season, we need to lose games.
We need to lose three games, actually. I'm not at all suggesting anyone lay down or quit or go half assed in those games because that would go against the spirit of competition. However it would actually be in our best interest - and the league's best interest - for us to lose three specific regular season games against Valpo and Oakland. Here's why:
The league needs money and exposure. Everyone knows that. It's indisputable. The best thing that could happen is to have multiple teams go to the Dance rather than just one automatic bid. More teams in the dance = more money for everybody. If a team is successful enough in the regular season to get an at-large bid and someone else wins the conference tournament: boom! The HL takes two slots. More money and exposure for everybody. As an example we're all familiar with, Butler going at-large but losing to Wright State and Cleveland State in the conference finals was better for the league than BU just winning outright. At this point, if someone is good enough to make it on their own merits and we beat them for the auto-bid, it's the best for everybody.
As of today, two teams have a sliver of a chance of making an at-large bid, but they'd need help. Keep in mind that running the table for either of them would dramatically improve their RPI by the end of the season.
-Valpo (11-4, 67 RPI) is the least likely of the two. They are 3-4 against top-100 teams (including Oakland at home), which isn't terrible, but they also have a very bad loss to #214 Santa Clara and they're already a game back in the HL standings. If they win out until the championship game, they'd be 28-5. That Santa Clara loss and a loss to us could be a tough sell, but it's still possible.
-Oakland (13-3, 72 RPI) just beat up on Valpo to become league favorites, giving them their second top-100 win in as many weeks. Their three losses were all to top-100 teams and two of them were decided by a total of six points. They're a last-second shot and couple of defensive stops away from being a one-loss team. If they win out until the championship, they'd be 29-4 with the only blemish coming in the very last game.
These teams running the table would increase the odds of a multi-bid HL. Either one could take another loss to the other and conceivably get an at-large NCAA or NIT birth (again, RPI will get better with 15-16 more wins), but that means staying perfect against everybody else, including us. The best thing to happen for us would be Oakland winning out, since they're already in first and likely to get a better seed in the tournament, and hoping a 27-6 record is enough for Valpo to sneak into the NIT.
If we end up falling against those teams in the regular season, but take them out in the finals and semifinals of the conference tournament, everybody wins.
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Post by Big D on Jan 8, 2017 16:02:48 GMT -5
No one is getting an at large bid from the HL. Oakland and Valpos RPI is going to continue to drop as the season goes on because the majority of the HL sucks and is going to be an anchor to them.
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