Horizon League PreviewBy Drew Jonke
Butler: Any Horizon League conversation starts and ends with the Butler Bulldogs. Butler was a five seed in the NCAA Tournament last year. They played the eventual champion Florida Gators closer than any of their five other opponents in the tournament, leading the Gators with less than three minutes left in the game.
Butler returns five of its top six players from a team that went 13-3 in the Horizon League. Last year's team was ranked in the top 25 for almost the entire season. They get excellent spacing, they have perimeter shooters by the boatload, they play gritty defense, and the team's collective basketball IQ is off the charts.
Led by senior guards AJ Graves and Mike Green, Butler should earn an even higher seed than last year, depending on how they fare against the most ambitious schedule they have ever played. Not only will Butler participate in the Great Alaska Shootout with the likes of Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, and Michigan, they will also host Ohio State and play Florida State at Conseco Fieldhouse. Toss on a home game against Southern Illinois, and you've got a high RPI schedule.
It's hard to find a weakness aside from the loss of Brandon Crone and coach Todd Lickliter. Pete Campbell can replace Crone's outside touch, and Drew Streicher is a solid defensive presence in the post. New head coach Brad Stevens is only 30, but should be able to keep the systems of Thad Matta and Todd Lickliter in place.
If Butler can survive its early season schedule, they will be ranked in the top 15 for most of the year. This March, Butler probably won't even have to win the Horizon League Tournament to secure an NCAA Tournament bid, and they have a great chance to advance beyond the sweet 16. AJ Graves is my pick for 2007-2008 Horizon League player of the year.
After Butler, this conference is wide open. The top four scorers in the conference all graduated. Wright State, Loyola, Wisconsin-Green Bay, and Youngstown State all lost their best player.
Wisconsin-Green Bay: The Phoenix are probably the most intriguing team after Butler. The loss of Ryan Evanochko is devastating. Evanochko led the team in scoring and led the conference in assists.
The Phoenix will count on a trio of talented juniors next season, led by forward Mike Schachtner. Schachtner averaged close to 15 ppg as a sophomore last year, and shot 49.7% from the field.
Ryan Tillema and Terry Evans will also have to step up this year. Sophomore point guard Troy Cotton was fortunate to have Evanochko to learn from as a freshman, but will be counted on to run the team and feed the veteran wing and post players.
Expect Wisconsin-Green Bay to be among the two or three teams competing for 2nd in the conference. Schachtner is a legitimate candidate to be a Horizon League first teamer.
Wright State: There is no replacing conference player of the year Deshaun Wood, but Wright State should still be solid in 2007. The next two leading scorers, sophomore guards Vaughn Duggins and Todd Brown, showed flashes of raw ability as freshmen and will take on more responsibility this year.
The Raiders play with discipline. They are well coached and they won't beat themselves. They don't shoot the lights out, but their percentages were solid in almost every category last year. Going 13-3 in the conference doesn't guarantee the same success the following year, but it allowed the young players to develop confidence.
The Raiders will probably be close to double digit conference wins next year. Even if they don't finish 2nd or 3rd, they won't be cellar dwellers either. I see them finishing somewhere between 5th and 2nd in the league.
Valparaiso: Valpo is new to the Horizon League, after a .500 year in the Mid-Continent Conference. Don't let last year's won-loss record fool you. This a team brimming with potential.
Samuel Haanpaa is an assassin. His name is Finnish, his hair is Josh Childress-ish, and his stroke is lethal. He led the team in scoring as a freshman last year, shooting a blistering 45.7% from beyond the arc. He is a dynamic player who is well complemented by a trio of returning upper-classmen who all averaged double figures last year.
6-8 junior Urule Igbavboa was second in the league in both double-doubles and rebounds last year, and was voted 2nd team all-conference.
Junior Brandon McPherson averaged over 11 points and shot 44.8% from downtown.
Any team coached by Homer Drew will be competitive and won't give up. This year's Valpo squad returns over 90% of both its scoring and minutes played. Drew is hoping a grueling early season schedule will prepare the Crusaders for their first season in the Horizon League. They travel to North Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Wisconsin.
This team is outstanding. Haanpaa's raw ability alone should make him a first team all-conference performer. There might be some lumps adjusting to a new conference, but hey, the new conference has to adjust to them, too. This is a second or third place in the conference team.
Cleveland State: The Gary Waters era didn't get off to the start Clevelanders had hoped for last year, as the Vikings went 3-13 in the Horizon League and 10-21 overall. But the era was in its infancy last year, and should improve significantly in Waters' second year.
6-5 junior J'Nathan Bullock is an extremely physical presence in the paint. His versatility might let him see some action on the wing this year as well, throwing off opposing defenses. His style of play reminds many observers of Charles Barkley.
Complementing Bullock will be a group of promising tranfers. 6-8 junior George Tandy was Ohio Valley Conference freshman of the year two years ago. He is long, athletic, and rebounds with tenacity.
Cedrick Jackson, taking over for Carlos English, will run the show. This two year starter at St. John's is explosive and can penetrate at will. His ability not only to get to the rim, but to finish in traffic, will put pressure on defenses all year. He is extremely competitive, like many playground talents from New York and New Jersey.
Sophomore guard Joe Davis played with energy and excitement last year and should provide a spark at the offensive end of the floor.
Junior Chris Moore transferred from UC Santa Barbara. Originally from Lakewood, Moore was a shot blocking machine in high school and should be a productive post player for the Vikings.
Waters is starting to build the team according to his style and philosophy. He wants a tough, defensive minded team that can full-court press, trap, and take opponents out of their flow. The new players are tranfers, so they are more experienced than other teams' newcomers. Jackson is a tough kid from New Jersey, Tandy was successful in the OVC-a league known for its physicality. And J'Nathan Bullock is a man among boys.
Maybe I'm a homer, but the Vikings have the ingredients to be just the type of team Waters hopes for. Whether or not they compete for the upper part of the Horizon League will depend on how well the new pieces gel. A team lacking identity for the past several years finally has one.
Freshman of the year: My pick is 6-6, 210 pound Wisconsin-Milwaukee freshman Kevin Johnson. The Simeon High School product and former teammate of McDonalds All-American Derrick Rose, Johnson can fly. Expect alley-oops, put-back dunks, and highlight reel rejections.
Horizon League First Team: Mike Green (Butler), Samuel Haanpaa (Valparaiso), Mike Schachtner (Wisconsin-Green Bay), J'Nathan Bullock (Cleveland State), Brandon Cotton (Detroit), Avery Smith (Wisconsin-Milwaukee)
Horizon League Player of the Year: AJ Graves (Butler)
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