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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 29, 2020 22:56:55 GMT -5
Another year of Horizon League Men's basketball has come to a conclusion. Well, at least the regular season. As per my annual tradition, I have compiled an in-depth look at Horizon League attendance figures for the 2019-2020 season. In reality, not much has changed in a year's time, but there are a few interesting things to note.
First off, I would like to say that attendance figures are taken from the official box score. To even the playing field, exhibition games are thrown out because attendance is typically not recoreded, as are Horizon League "home games" not played on the schools regular home court (or courts if you're Green Bay). This includes teams designated as the home team in a tournament or MTE, as well as any games played on a "neutral" court.
On to the analysis:
The good: Wright State continues to pace the way leading the league in average attendance for the 8th straight year. The Raiders saw a very slight uptick in attendance from the 2018-2019 season.
YSU and CSU both averaged more than 200 more fans in attendance this season than last season. A good sign of the young careers of coaches Calhoun and Gates, respectively. WSU's average attendance is also up from last season.
The bad: All but 3 of the league schools averaged less than 2500 fans per game, and 3 schools never hit the 3000 mark in any one game this season.
The ugly: IUPUI, Milwaukee, and Cleveland State combined for 8 games with less than 1000 fans each.
Detroit. The Titans lost, on average, over 600 fans per game compared to last season. Far and above the worst trending number in the league.
Out of Conference:
It wasn't a real exciting year for HLMBB teams hosting out of conference games. In fact, none of the highest 10 attended games came out of conference.
The average home attendance for out of conference games were as follows:
WSU 3409
NKU 2880
Oakland 2776
Clev St 1749
YSU 1642
UIC 1636
UW-GB 1561
Detroit 1433
UW-MKE 1292
IUPUI 1223
The highest attended out of conference game was Kent State at Wright State with 4261 in attendance.
Conference Games:
In-conference game attendance for the conference as a whole fell by 130 fans this season.
Breakdown by team is as follows:
WSU 4674
NKU 4012
Oakland 3370
YSU 2858
UW-GB 2102
UIC 1927
Detroit 1438
Clev St 1360
UW-MKE 1292
IUPUI 1196
And finally, the average across all games by home team:
WSU 4120
NKU 3559
Oakland 3221
YSU 2368
UW-GB 1935
UIC 1800
Clev St 1499
Detroit 1437
UW-MKE 1435
IUPUI 1205
Top games/series/weekends:
Top 10 Attended Games:
WSU @ NKU 6776
DET @ NKU 6231
NKU @ WSU 6217
IUPUI @ WSU 6003
YSU @ WSU 5474
OAK @ WSU 5053
IUPUI @ YSU 4633
CSU @ NKU 4390
DET @ WSU 4344
UIC @ WSU 4261
Bottom 10 games, based on attendance are as follows:
IUPUI vs. NKU 789
IUPUI vs. YSU 868
IUPUI vs. CSU 889
MKE vs. WI-Lut 895
MKE vs. UND 971
CSU vs. DET 973
MKE vs IUPUI 977
CSU vs. Depaul 991
DET vs. SIU-E 1003
IUPUI vs. MKE 1007
Top 10 Road/Home Series (team which contributed more home attendance listed first)
Top 10 R/H Series
12993 NKU/WSU
8447 WSU/OAK
7622 WSU/YSU
7554 NKU/DET
7445 YSU/NKU
7145 WSU/IUPUI
6303 OAK/YSU
6120 NKU/OAK
6079 WSU/GB
5898 NKU/CSU
Most Attended Weekend Series (home team listed first)
10264 WSU vs. IUPUI/UIC
9472 NKU vs. DET/OAK
9397 WSU vs. OAK/DET
8627 WSU vs. YSU/CSU
7931 YSU vs. IUPUI/CSU
7622 NKU vs. CSU/YSU
7559 WSU vs. GB/MKE
7121 OAK vs. GB/MKE
6776 NKU vs. WSU
6735 OAK vs. UIC/IUPUI
Total Season Attendance
65925 WSU (16 games)
53385 NKU (15)
38657 OAK (12)
35522 YSU (15)
28794 UIC (16)
25157 GB (14)
21518 MKE (15)
20988 CSU (14)
18677 DET (13)
15661 IUPUI (13)
Road Show Up (Your Road Attendance Avg, In-Conference Only)
2760 IUPUI
2751 Detroit
2608 UW-GB
2471 Cleveland St.
2457 Wright St.
2416 NKU
2389 YSU
2308 Oakland
2227 UIC
2088 UW-MKE
In 2019-2020, HLMBB home teams averaged:
1960 fans for out of conference games (up from 1883)
2447 fans for in-conference games (down from 2586)
2258 for all games (down from 2301)
Win Probability Based On Attendance
Odds of winning if you had:
<2k fans 49.33% 37 of 75 home teams won
2k-3k fans 63.33% 19 of 30 home teams won
3k-4k fans 70.83% 17 of 24 home teams won
4k-5k fans 71.43% 5 of 7 home teams won
5k-6k fans 100% 2 of 2 home teams won
6k + fans 75% 3 of 4 home teams won
Ironically, the highest attended game all season, WSU @ NKU (6776) resulted in a home team loss. The next highest was WSU's 4216 to Kent State, and the next highest in-conference loss was YSU when they lost in front of 4213 fans to NKU.
The home team won 77% of the time if there was more than 4k fans in attendance, compared to just 57% if attendance was under 4k.
Trends (in-conference games, compared to 2018-19 season):
CSU +243 fans
YSU +208 fans
WSU +1 fan
OAK -46 fans
MKE -127 fans
IUPUI -148 fans
NKU -193 fans
UIC -267 fans
GB -456 fans
DET -606 fans
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Post by Love and Raider Basketball on Mar 1, 2020 12:44:05 GMT -5
Interesting, thanks for sharing. A little surprised we were essentially flat on the year attendance wise, considering our record and performance all year. I'm guessing we will need a combo of the following to see attendance increase in the future:
1. Get quality non-conference teams into the Nutter Center (not in our control)
2. Move conferences to get more marquee matchups with ranked opponents (not in our control)
3. Horizon teams make a significant jump in quality (not in our control)
4. Spend more money on the fan experience (in our control)
While fan experience is in our control, I see this as a minimal impact compared to the others listed above. In the end, fans pay money to see good matchups, of which there are few and far between in the Horizon League right now.
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Post by Big D on Mar 1, 2020 13:21:04 GMT -5
Interesting, thanks for sharing. A little surprised we were essentially flat on the year attendance wise, considering our record and performance all year. I'm guessing we will need a combo of the following to see attendance increase in the future: 1. Get quality non-conference teams into the Nutter Center (not in our control) 2. Move conferences to get more marquee matchups with ranked opponents (not in our control) 3. Horizon teams make a significant jump in quality (not in our control) 4. Spend more money on the fan experience (in our control) While fan experience is in our control, I see this as a minimal impact compared to the others listed above. In the end, fans pay money to see good matchups, of which there are few and far between in the Horizon League right now. I'm going to disagree on some of your points: 1. Get quality non-conference teams into the Nutter Center: that is entirely in our control. We aren't getting Duke to come to the Nutter Center but there is no reason we cannot get home and home series started with other quality mid-majors that have some name recognition. Name recognition is what matters to bring in casual fans. 2. Move conferences to get more marquee matchups with ranked opponents: that is partially in our control. We need to keep winning and start advancing in the post season if we want to make ourselves appealing to better conferences. 3. Horizon teams make a significant jump in quality: this just isn't going to happen. We are adding IPFW next year which is another bad team. The current HL is a bunch of bad teams except for NKU and I see NKU taking a step back next year. They lose 2 of their top 4 scorers next year and their recruiting class is ok but I don't see anyone stepping in and replacing Walton or Sharpe next year. 4. Spend more money on the fan experience: this really is only partially in our control. Grant either has to take money away from another sport or find a way to bring more money into the athletic department in order to spend more money on game day experience. The school is still trying to turn itself around financially and the budget is set in stone. Grant needs to find a way to be a better fundraiser for us. Personally, I think we need to make a much bigger effort to increase season ticket sales for next year. I think our staff did their best trying to increase individual game attendance this year with promotions. We need to really beef up our season ticket sales if we want to make a significant improvement in attendance and revenue. I would love for them to reach out to all the former season ticket holders we had in the past that dropped their tickets and offer them free or highly discounted tickets next year. Its a huge gamble but I think if we can get those people back into the Nutter Center to see the style of ball Nagy has brought to WSU that a lot of them will come back the following year as paying season ticket holders. If nothing else we will increase attendance next year and increase revenue with concession sales. We also need to do a better job of reaching out to newer grads and get them to come to games. |
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Post by Raider3G on Mar 1, 2020 13:31:53 GMT -5
Interesting, thanks for sharing. A little surprised we were essentially flat on the year attendance wise, considering our record and performance all year. I'm guessing we will need a combo of the following to see attendance increase in the future: 1. Get quality non-conference teams into the Nutter Center (not in our control) 2. Move conferences to get more marquee matchups with ranked opponents (not in our control) 3. Horizon teams make a significant jump in quality (not in our control) 4. Spend more money on the fan experience (in our control) While fan experience is in our control, I see this as a minimal impact compared to the others listed above. In the end, fans pay money to see good matchups, of which there are few and far between in the Horizon League right now. I'm going to disagree on some of your points: 1. Get quality non-conference teams into the Nutter Center: that is entirely in our control. We aren't getting Duke to come to the Nutter Center but there is no reason we cannot get home and home series started with other quality mid-majors that have some name recognition. Name recognition is what matters to bring in casual fans. 2. Move conferences to get more marquee matchups with ranked opponents: that is partially in our control. We need to keep winning and start advancing in the post season if we want to make ourselves appealing to better conferences. 3. Horizon teams make a significant jump in quality: this just isn't going to happen. We are adding IPFW next year which is another bad team. The current HL is a bunch of bad teams except for NKU and I see NKU taking a step back next year. They lose 2 of their top 4 scorers next year and their recruiting class is ok but I don't see anyone stepping in and replacing Walton or Sharpe next year. 4. Spend more money on the fan experience: this really is only partially in our control. Grant either has to take money away from another sport or find a way to bring more money into the athletic department in order to spend more money on game day experience. The school is still trying to turn itself around financially and the budget is set in stone. Grant needs to find a way to be a better fundraiser for us. Personally, I think we need to make a much bigger effort to increase season ticket sales for next year. I think our staff did their best trying to increase individual game attendance this year with promotions. We need to really beef up our season ticket sales if we want to make a significant improvement in attendance and revenue. I would love for them to reach out to all the former season ticket holders we had in the past that dropped their tickets and offer them free or highly discounted tickets next year. Its a huge gamble but I think if we can get those people back into the Nutter Center to see the style of ball Nagy has brought to WSU that a lot of them will come back the following year as paying season ticket holders. If nothing else we will increase attendance next year and increase revenue with concession sales. We also need to do a better job of reaching out to newer grads and get them to come to games. Is there insight into if #1 above is actively bring worked for next year (or if they plan on going in that direction)? |
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Post by raider85 on Mar 1, 2020 14:39:47 GMT -5
I think our average of 4120 is a big disappointment. Everyone always says if we win they will come but that is not happening.
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Post by Love and Raider Basketball on Mar 1, 2020 15:01:34 GMT -5
I assumed if we were able to get better teams into the Nutter Center we would’ve. Not sure why you would do home-home with the Tennessee Techs of the world, if you could get a Northern Iowa
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Post by raiders93 on Mar 1, 2020 15:18:01 GMT -5
I think our average of 4120 is a big disappointment. Everyone always says if we win they will come but that is not happening. Couple this with Love’s post and there’s the answer. You can be undefeated at home, but if it’s against the Cedarvilles, Southerns and Mississippi Valley States of the world, nobody cares. The Dayton community is too basketball savvy to fall for a dominant record against a super weak home slate. This needs to improve. By the way, good stuff, 09. I always enjoy this review each season. |
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Post by keithfromxenia on Mar 1, 2020 16:09:49 GMT -5
a couple of thoughts. first, 09, a really great job and I am sure a lot of work went into it. we hank you. I would have liked to know our attendance trend in non con games. I think it would be down. but a great job nonetheless.
love, you said you assumed we would have had uni if we could have gotten them. I personally have a hard time believing a schedule this bad could be built accidentally. someone posted that until the final nku game we were only the underdog in one game. one game!! how do you do that while trying to build a strong schedule? my answer to that is you don’t.
I hope that next season we do whatever it takes to build a strong, challenging schedule. I also hope our administration is being proactive in reaching out to the mvc.
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Post by Big D on Mar 1, 2020 18:37:45 GMT -5
I assumed if we were able to get better teams into the Nutter Center we would’ve. Not sure why you would do home-home with the Tennessee Techs of the world, if you could get a Northern Iowa We cannot control our conference schedule but we can control our OOC schedule. Our OOC SOS was 295. There are 353 D1 schools. I love our coaching staff. I think they do a great job coming up with a game plan for every team we play. They recruit kids that fit their system really well and kick ass at developing those players. I don't think they do a good job of scheduling. In fact, 294 out of 353 schools did a better job this year than our staff. If they are happy with a 15 seed in the NCAA tournament then they achieved their scheduling goal. If they want to have a chance to be a 12-13 seed they need to seriously make some changes in the way they go about scheduling. |
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Post by raiderrunt on Mar 3, 2020 11:08:09 GMT -5
I think our average of 4120 is a big disappointment. Everyone always says if we win they will come but that is not happening. I disagree we have been trending up and this year we are finally pretty good, but I think we have to make some noise in the NCAA. That will get their attention. Let's face it, few people read the DDN anymore and they get their sports news from ESPN and other sports networks. So, we just don't get much mention on the national level. If we could pull off a run like Florida Gulf Coast University or VCU, that would do it. FGCU sold out their games for the next few years after that run.I think that would happen at the Nutt House too. A great analysis of attendance, thank you '09 for putting it together. Big D, you nailed it on both of your posts in this thread. Love, I think you were a little off in your analysis/conclusions, but you are thinking along the right lines. |
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Post by CincyDrummer on Mar 3, 2020 11:45:39 GMT -5
I think our average of 4120 is a big disappointment. Everyone always says if we win they will come but that is not happening. I disagree we have been trending up and this year we are finally pretty good, but I think we have to make some noise in the NCAA. That will get their attention. Let's face it, few people read the DDN anymore and they get their sports news from ESPN and other sports networks. So, we just don't get much mention on the national level. If we could pull off a run like Florida Gulf Coast University or VCU, that would do it. FGCU sold out their games for the next few years after that run.I think that would happen at the Nutt House too. A great analysis of attendance, thank you '09 for putting it together. Big D, you nailed it on both of your posts in this thread. Love, I think you were a little off in your analysis/conclusions, but you are thinking along the right lines. Sorry but you are wrong too if you think people are still getting their sports news from ESPN or “other sports networks”. ESPN subscriptions have been declining at their fastest rate in company history, and NBA viewership is way down as well. Today’s generation gets their sports news from Twitter, Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram, viral videos and word of mouth. To bring in more fans we need to win consistently AND win big, no one besides the diehards give two shits if we beat Cleveland State. There’s not a whole lot more to it. Atmosphere etc will come with good wins. Get consistent quality wins, create buzz and they will come. This year was an improvement but still not nearly good enough considering we have X, UC, U* etc in our backyards who all have a long tradition of winning. The competition for time and money at basketball games is fierce in Southwest Ohio. To be clear, I like our trajectory and obviously hope we keep it up. We’re getting there, just not quite good enough yet. |
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Post by raiderrunt on Mar 3, 2020 12:42:09 GMT -5
I disagree we have been trending up and this year we are finally pretty good, but I think we have to make some noise in the NCAA. That will get their attention. Let's face it, few people read the DDN anymore and they get their sports news from ESPN and other sports networks. So, we just don't get much mention on the national level. If we could pull off a run like Florida Gulf Coast University or VCU, that would do it. FGCU sold out their games for the next few years after that run.I think that would happen at the Nutt House too. A great analysis of attendance, thank you '09 for putting it together. Big D, you nailed it on both of your posts in this thread. Love, I think you were a little off in your analysis/conclusions, but you are thinking along the right lines. Sorry but you are wrong too if you think people are still getting their sports news from ESPN or “other sports networks”. ESPN subscriptions have been declining at their fastest rate in company history, and NBA viewership is way down as well. Today’s generation gets their sports news from Twitter, Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram, viral videos and word of mouth. To bring in more fans we need to win consistently AND win big, no one besides the diehards give two shits if we beat Cleveland State. There’s not a whole lot more to it. Atmosphere etc will come with good wins. Get consistent quality wins, create buzz and they will come. This year was an improvement but still not nearly good enough considering we have X, UC, U* etc in our backyards who all have a long tradition of winning. The competition for time and money at basketball games is fierce in Southwest Ohio. To be clear, I like our trajectory and obviously hope we keep it up. We’re getting there, just not quite good enough yet. I agree with you to the extent that social media is providing sports news for a growing number of fans but it is nowhere near the majority of fans. You don't see Twitter or FB on in sports bars or on at Anytime Fitness, you see sports networks. I also agree with you that there is lots of competition for time and entertainment dollars and the Raiders are moving in the right direction. |
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Post by Love and Raider Basketball on Mar 3, 2020 12:55:22 GMT -5
To the point about fan experience, Nagy addressed some of that during this week's radio show.
He said Bob Grant had all kinds of ideas for promotions to increase attendance when he was hired, but Nagy shot it down essentially saying, win and they will come.
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Post by Big D on Mar 3, 2020 17:32:17 GMT -5
To the point about fan experience, Nagy addressed some of that during this week's radio show. He said Bob Grant had all kinds of ideas for promotions to increase attendance when he was hired, but Nagy shot it down essentially saying, win and they will come. Well this is one of those rare instances where Coach Nagy is wrong. He spent a couple of decades coaching in South Dakota. If any of you have been there you know there isn’t a god damn thing to do there all winter. If you have a winning basketball program you are going to have a good following there. This is Dayton. We are competing against the team across town, the teams in Cincinnati and the team in Columbus and pro and college football for people’s entertainment dollars. Winning surely helps but it isn’t enough to bring in big crowds. |
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Post by raidman on Mar 5, 2020 22:01:52 GMT -5
The reality is that the staff wants a) wins, b) recruits that come because of the wins and c) the positive momentum the wins breed in the players. They don’t really care about attendance as much as wins, they care but it’s down the list. A 12 vs. a 15 seed is important but getting to the Dance is so much more important in their eyes. They have in the past scheduled better teams. E.g. 2011 win at #88 Iowa, 2012 win at #56 Washington, 2013 win at #23 New Mexico, wins at Georgia Tech and Minnesota. Losses at Stanford, Texas Tech, Belmont, Minnesota, Alabama, etc.
They have had some success against power conference schools. I don’t think Bob Grant forces the Buy Games, there are more historic matchups - Miami, Toledo, Kent State and they challenged themselves the past two years in Early season tournaments against good teams, though this year Murray was down and Drake lost. The teams on our schedule should have been better - Kent State and Toledo had down years, Western Kentucky is our best win and people forget they lost their best player, a potential NBA guy after we beat them. A few other examples. But no excuse for Mississippi Valley State and some of the others. The schedule needs to have a balance of easy, historic matchups, a few mid major challenges, and a few games against power conference schools in my opinion.
But we may not have to worry about this all if they make it to the dance and Nagy goes on the move again.
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