Saturday Scenarios

[GBFanJ]

Yes, this is a VERY long post, but it goes through all of the possible scenarios for Saturday. Bottom line for WSU: They get the #3 seed if they win. If they don't win, the best they can do is the #4 seed.

Most likely seedings
Based on percentages

#1 - UWM
#2 - Butler
#3 - Wright State
#4 - UWGB
#5 - Detroit
#6 - Loyola
#7 - UIC
#8 - Cleveland State
#9 - Youngstown State

Percent chance of receiving possible seeds
Based on each team having a 50/50 chance of winning each game, though actual odds may be different

UWM
#1 seed: 56.25%
#2 seed: 43.75%

Butler
#1 seed: 43.75%
#2 seed: 56.25%

Wright State
#3 seed: 50%
#4 seed: 6.25%
#5 seed: 18.75%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 6.25%

UWGB
#3 seed: 12.5%
#4 seed: 43.75%
#5 seed: 18.75%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 6.25%

Detroit
#4 seed: 12.5%
#5 seed: 37.5%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 31.25%

Loyola
#3 seed: 12.5%
#4 seed: 25%
#5 seed: 18.75%
#6 seed: 25%
#7 seed: 18.75%

UIC
#3 seed: 25%
#4 seed: 12.5%
#5 seed: 6.25%
#6 seed: 18.75%
#7 seed: 37.5%

Cleveland State
#8 seed: 75%
#9 seed: 25%

Youngstown State
#8 seed: 25%
#9 seed: 75%


All 16 possible scenarios
Winners for each game listed first
Final record in parenthesis, tie-breakers in brackets


UIC, Detroit, CSU, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [3-1 vs. Detroit/WSU]
# 4 - Detroit (8-8) [2-2 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 5 - Wright State (8-8) [1-3 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 6 - UWGB (7-9) [2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 7 - Loyola (7-9) [0-2 vs. UWGB]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

UIC, Detroit, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Loyola (8-8) [4-2 vs. UIC/Detroit/WSU]
# 4 - UIC (8-8) [3-3 vs. Loyola/Detroit/WSU, 1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-1 vs. UWM]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [3-3 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 1-1 vs. UIC, 0-2 vs. UWM]
# 6 - Wright State (8-8) [2-4 vs. Loyola/UIC/Detroit]
# 7 - UWGB (7-9)
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

UIC, Detroit, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [4-2 vs. UWGB/Detroit/WSU]
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [3-3 vs. UIC/Detroit/WSU, 1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-1 vs. UWM]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [3-3 vs. UIC/UWGB/WSU, 1-1 vs. UWGB, 0-2 vs. UWM]
# 6 - Wright State (8-8) [2-4 vs. UIC/UWGB/Detroit]
# 7 - Loyola (7-9)
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler]

UIC, Detroit, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - UWGB (8-8) [5-3 vs. UIC/Detroit/Loyola/WSU]
# 4 - Loyola (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/Detroit/Loyola/WSU, 3-1 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/UIC/Loyola/WSU, 2-2 vs. UIC/Loyola]
# 6 - UIC (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/UIC/Detroit/WSU, 1-3 vs. Detroit/Loyola]
# 7 - Wright State (8-8) [3-5 vs. UWGB/UIC/Detroit/Loyola]
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

UIC, Butler, CSU, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 3-1 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 2-2 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [2-0 vs. WSU]
# 4 - Wright State (8-8) [0-2 vs. UIC]
# 5 - UWGB (7-9) [3-1 vs. Detroit/Loyola]
# 6 - Detroit (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola]
# 7 - Loyola (7-9) [1-3 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

UIC, Butler, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 4-0 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU, 3-1 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 3 - Loyola (8-8) [3-1 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 4 - UIC (8-8) [2-2 vs. Loyola/WSU]
# 5 - Wright State (8-8) [1-3 vs. UIC/Loyola]
# 6 - UWGB (7-9) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [1-1 vs. UWGB, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

UIC, Butler, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 5-1 vs. UIC/UWGB/WSU]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 3-3 vs. UIC/UWGB/WSU]
# 3 - UIC (8-8) [3-1 vs. UWGB/WSU]
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [2-2 vs. UIC/WSU]
# 5 - Wright State (8-8) [1-3 vs. UWGB/UIC]
# 6 - Loyola (7-9) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [1-1 vs. Loyola, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]

UIC, Butler, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 6-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola/UIC/WSU]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 5-3 vs. UWGB/Loyola/UIC/WSU]
# 3 - UWGB (8-8) [4-2 vs. Loyola/UIC/WSU]
# 4 - Loyola (8-8) [3-3 vs. UWGB/UIC/WSU, 2-0 vs. UIC]
# 5 - UIC (8-8) [3-3 vs. UWGB/UIC/WSU, 0-2 vs. Loyola]
# 6 - Wright State (8-8) [2-4 vs. UWGB/Loyola/UIC]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9)
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Detroit, CSU, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - Detroit (8-8)
# 5 - UWGB (7-9) [3-1 vs. Loyola/UIC]
# 6 - Loyola (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [1-3 vs. UWGB/Loyola]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

WSU, Detroit, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - Loyola (8-8) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC, 2-0 vs. CSU]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [1-1 vs. Loyola, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC, 1-1 vs. CSU]
# 6 - UWGB (7-9) [1-1 vs. UIC, 1-1 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 3-1 vs. Loyola/Detroit]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [1-1 vs. UWGB, 1-1 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 1-3 vs. Loyola/Detroit]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Detroit, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-1 vs. UWM]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [1-1 vs. UWGB, 0-2 vs. UWM]
# 6 - Loyola (7-9) [2-0 vs. UIC]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [0-2 vs. Loyola]
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. Butler]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-2 vs. UWM, 0-2 vs. Butler]

WSU, Detroit, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [3-1 vs. Detroit/Loyola]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [2-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola]
# 6 - Loyola (8-8) [1-3 vs. UWGB/Detroit]
# 7 - UIC (7-9)
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Butler, CSU, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 7-1 vs. UWGB/Loyola/Detroit/UIC]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 6-2 vs. UWGB/Loyola/Detroit/UIC]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (7-9) [4-2 vs. Loyola/Detroit/UIC]
# 5 - Loyola (7-9) [3-3 vs. UWGB/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 6 - Detroit (7-9) [3-3 vs. UWGB/Loyola, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [2-4 vs. UWGB/Loyola/Detroit]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (5-11)

WSU, Butler, CSU, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 2 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 1-1 vs. Loyola]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - Loyola (8-8)
# 5 - UWGB (7-9) [2-2 vs. UIC/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. UIC, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 6 - UIC (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. UWGB, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 0-2 vs. Loyola]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [2-2 vs. UWGB/UIC, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (6-10)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

WSU, Butler, UWGB, YSU

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 2-0 vs. UWGB]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 1-1 vs. UWGB]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8)
# 5 - Loyola (7-9) [3-1 vs. Detroit/UIC]
# 6 - Detroit (7-9) [2-2 vs. Loyola/UIC]
# 7 - UIC (7-9) [1-3 vs. Loyola/Detroit]
# 8 - Youngstown State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 9 - Cleveland State (5-11) [1-1 vs. CSU, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]

WSU, Butler, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - Butler (12-4) [1-1 vs. UWM, 1-1 vs. WSU, 3-1 vs. UWGB/Loyola, 4-0 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 2 - UWM (12-4) [1-1 vs. Butler, 1-1 vs. WSU, 3-1 vs. UWGB/Loyola, 3-1 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 3 - Wright State (9-7)
# 4 - UWGB (8-8) [2-0 vs. Loyola]
# 5 - Loyola (8-8) [0-2 vs. UWGB]
# 6 - UIC (7-9) [1-1 vs. Detroit, 1-3 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 7 - Detroit (7-9) [1-1 vs. UIC, 0-4 vs. Butler/UWM]
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

[Raider Country]

All that really matters is that WSU needs to beat UIC on Saturday. If we lose, we might as well not even show up for the tournament after falling apart again late in the year. I know we won't have any fans if we host a first round game at the Nutter Center.

[HALO]

If Butler wins on Saturday where will the Tourney take place??

is Butler or UWM win this tiebraker?

it makes a bit difference if you want to go watch the tourney.....

if anybody knows please let us know

[GBFanJ]

Look above. It's all listed with seedings. UWM hosts if Butler loses or Wright State, Cleveland State, and Loyola all win. Butler hosts if they win and UIC, UWGB, or Youngstown State wins (only one of the three out of UIC, UWGB, & YSU needs to win, not all).

[keithfromxenia]

gbfan,i am impressed with that post. that was a lot of work. if i had to pick a scenario, it would be butler wins, raiders lose, gb, loyola win, and we have a four way tie with gb, wsu, loyola and uic. that is the 8th scenario from top. and that would suck!!! but again, a very great job there gbfan. i appreciate your effort.

[GBFanJ]

Thanks for the comments. If you're looking for the ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO for Wright State, here it is. There's some disagreement about who #4, #5, and #6 are, just with some different interpretatitons of the rules, but in this case, it's certain where WSU ends up.

UIC, Detroit, UWGB, Loyola

# 1 - UWM (12-4)
# 2 - Butler (11-5)
# 3 - UWGB (8-8) [5-3 vs. UIC/Detroit/Loyola/WSU]
# 4 - Loyola (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/Detroit/UIC/WSU, 3-1 vs. UIC/Detroit]
# 5 - Detroit (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/UIC/Loyola/WSU, 2-2 vs. UIC/Loyola]
# 6 - UIC (8-8) [4-4 vs. UWGB/UIC/Detroit/WSU, 1-3 vs. Detroit/Loyola]
# 7 - Wright State (8-8) [3-5 vs. UWGB/UIC/Detroit/Loyola]
# 8 - Cleveland State (5-11)
# 9 - Youngstown State (4-12)

[Raider Country]

The ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO for Wright State has nothing to do with seeding. We can't afford to loss Saturday, period. Even WSU's hardcore fans are having a hard time supporting this team when we continue to fail to show up for big games. A loss Saturday may be more than just the loss of another game, we could disenchant even more of our loyal fan base.


Our pride is at stake!

[GBFanJ]

Good point there. It would be tough for anyone to go into the postseason on a losing streak. Two losses to end the season and three of the last four games as losses would mean they would probably not have a lot of momentum behind them.

As for me, I definitely want to see UWGB win Saturday to get some momentum going into the tournament and hopefully finally get a win in the HL tournament under Kowalczyk.

[Class of '83]

graphics.fansonly.com/photos/schools/hori/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/trackabracket.pdf