Baseball 2018

[raiderrunt]

In regards to RPI, Northeastern with an RPI of 35 and UK with an RPI of 30 didn't get in. Northeastern played some tough teams on the road but didn't do well against any of them. They didn't even beat a good team in a series. UK was 13-18 in their conference. So we know Wright State needs an RPI in the low 30s and they need to win a few series again top 50 teams. We need a better schedule and we have to win some of the games to get the higher seed.

I think the Raiders will consistently win the HL, but that only gets us a crappy seed.

Also, get in the 40/40 club (40 wins and top 40 RPI) and we probably get in with an at-large bid.

[mrose]

bball is correct. The NCAA only seeds the top 16. That's a first beginning this year. Previously it was the top 8 seeds.

Baseball seeds regionally....at least historically that's what the NCAA did. However, they would still ship teams out of region for balance. This year I believe we're 2nd farthest away from our regional. UW is the farthest. Seattle to Conway, SC (via road) is a little over 3,000 miles. We're 2,400+ miles from Stanford. But, sending us across the country as a #4 to Stanford and sending #4 Gonzaga halfway across the country to Minnesota doesn't make any sense if it's based on region.

It's becoming more difficult to seed regionally as more and more of the better teams/programs are geographically located in the Southeast/South. So, there is a discussion going on in the NCAA to go to a S-Curve and seed teams 1-64. Along with that discussion is that teams must have at least a .500 conference record. I'm not sure how that conversation will end, but I'm betting the P-5 conferences with unbalanced schedules win the discussion (e.g., Kentucky)

RE: 40/40 Club. I believe it's D1 baseball's research that goes back more than a decade that states the NCAA has never left out a team with 40 wins and a top 40 RPI. It's easier said than done, but realistically doable for a program like Wright State.

[mrose]

Stanford gets its highest NCAA baseball seed ever, opens vs. Wright State

Even with the high seed, the Cardinal won’t have an easy task. They will host one of the tougher regionals

“They’re all quality opponents,” Esquer said, but he said he had no quarrel with the relative difficulty of his team’s regional. “We know you’ve got to go through good people to get where we want to go.”

The Pac-12 champions (44-10, 22-8) will open against Wright State at 7 p.m. Friday.

www.sfgate.com/collegesports/article/Stanford-gets-highest-NCAA-baseball-seed-ever-12948944.php

[bballraider]

College Baseball Daily’s Breakdown of the Stanford Regional:

www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2018/05/30/2018-ncaa-baseball-tournament-regional-preview-stanford/

...Wright State 39-15 (22-6)
It is a mystery how well Wright State will do because they only played one top-25 team this season and zero regional squads. All we know is that they are 69th in the RPI, won the regular season and tournament championships in the Horizon league, and have played spoiler in the past. Their offense features 9 players with averages above .275 en route to a .298 team mark. First baseman Gabe Snyder and outfielder Peyton Burdick are one of the best offensive duos in the nation. Snyder hit .363 with 15 HR and 72 RBI while Burdick put up a .356 mark with 9 HR and 65 RBI. Ryan Weiss leads the pitching staff with a 9-2 record, 3.40 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 92.2 innings. The staff had a 3.77 ERA this year. At the very least, this team should be fun to watch.

[bballraider]

Baseball America’s Regional breakdown:

www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-ncaa-baseball-tournament-stanford-regional/

...4. Wright State (39-15, 22-6 Horizon League)

7th appearance (first since 2016); automatic bid; first in the Horizon League; Horizon League Tournament champions

BA 500 Prospects: LHP Zane Collins (297), RHP Ryan Weiss (459)

Season In A Sentence: Wright State cruised through the campaign with little turbulence and finished the regular season with eight consecutive victories, scoring double-digit runs in the last six games, to make its third regional in the last four years.

Player To Watch: Gabe Snyder, 1B: Snyder was named the Horizon League player of the year after an outstanding campaign that saw him post a .363 batting average with 15 home runs and 72 RBIs. The redshirt senior leads his team in seven different offensive categories and has been the driving force behind Wright State’s success. Snyder also has some speed on the basepaths, having stole 15 bases this season.

Best Weekend: Horizon League Tournament, May 24-26. The Raiders used three double-digit outbursts to win their third Horizon League Tournament title in the last four seasons. Wright State defeated Youngstown State, 11-1, in the opening game, then disposed of Illinois-Chicago twice in two days to capture the championship. The Raiders scored 32 runs in the three-game stretch.

Outlook: Wright State comes into tournament play red hot and is one of the best four-seeds in the tournament. The question is whether its hot bats can perform against one of the top pitching staffs in the nation in Stanford. But the Raiders are riding an eight-game winning streak and could have a few more offensive explosions left in store for regional play.

[raiderrunt]

The first thing that comes to mind is the old adage that good pitching stops good hitting. A lot of things have to go right for the Raiders to advance. Stanford's pitchers need to be off their game. The Wright State pitchers need to pitch crazy good. The Raider bats need to stay hot and then a bear craps in the woods and the Raiders advance. No problem, right?

[bballraider]

This thread on the Baylor Message Board list all the stats of the regional teams and individuals in Palo Alto. Taken with a bit of humility as competition of each team has been different, but still nice to see the Raiders ranked pretty high statistically. The first number before each stat is the national ranking.

sicem365.com/s/2714/baylor-baseball-earns-no-2-seed-at-stanford-regional/5

Stanford Regional Team Season Stats

RUNS SCORED PER GAME
8. Wright State 7.9
43. Stanford 6.7
52. Baylor 6.5
227. Cal State Fullerton 4.8

BATTING AVERAGE
21. Wright State .298
45. Baylor .288
69. Stanford .283
138. Cal State Fullerton .271

ON BASE %
15. Wright State .398
58. Baylor .380
108. Stanford .369
221. Cal State Fullerton .345

SLUGGING %
31. Stanford .447
38. Baylor .445
40. Wright State .444
243. Cal State Fullerton .352

DOUBLES PER GAME
19. Wright State 2.11
28. Baylor 2.05
78. Stanford 1.81
186. Cal State Fullerton 1.56

TRIPLES PER GAME
25. Stanford 0.33
25. Wright State 0.33
40. Cal State Fullerton 0.31
86. Baylor 0.25

HOMERUNS PER GAME
39. Stanford 1.00
50. Baylor 0.95
106. Wright State 0.76
291. Cal State Fullerton 0.20

STOLEN BASES PER GAME
7. Wright State 2.04
155. Stanford 0.93
189. Cal State Fullerton 0.80
252. Baylor 0.60

EARNED RUN AVERAGE
2. Stanford 2.85
11. Baylor 3.19
28. Cal State Fullerton 3.52
49. Wright State 3.77

WHIP
3. Stanford 1.17
29. Wright State 1.27
35. Cal State Fullerton 1.29
49. Baylor 1.32

HITS ALLOWED PER 9 INN
5. Stanford 7.39
20. Wright State 7.70
27. Baylor 7.80
106. Cal State Fullerton 8.89

STRIKEOUTS PER 9 INN
94. Baylor 8.4
116. Cal State Fullerton 8.2
152. Stanford 7.8
187. Wright State 7.5

WALKS ALLOWED PER 9 INN
5. Cal State Fullerton 2.69
27. Stanford 3.13
98. Wright State 3.77
146. Baylor 4.09

STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO
7. Cal State Fullerton 3.04
40. Stanford 2.50
118. Baylor 2.05
128. Wright State 1.99

FIELDING %
5. Wright State .982
25. Stanford .977
92. Cal State Fullerton .972
128. Baylor .970

DOUBLE PLAYS PER GAME
53. Wright State 0.89
126. Baylor 0.76
248. Cal State Fullerton 0.60
280. Stanford 0.52

[bballraider]

D1 Baseball Regional Breakdown #2:

d1baseball.com/postseason/stanford-regional-breakdown-2/

Regional Superlatives

Most Exciting Player: Will Matthiessen, rhp/dh, Stanford. The most valuable assets in college baseball are two-way players and Matthiessen has been one of the best the last month. He’s launching a home run within every 10 at-bats and coming up with some dramatic hits, including a game-winning homer against Utah, a three-run double to beat Oregon State and a game-tying ninth inning homer against Washington to help lock up the Pac-12 title.

Best Hitter: Gabe Snyder, 1b, Wright State. The Horizon League Player of the Year enters the postseason hitting .363-15-72 and collects nearly as many walks as strikeouts.

Best Defensive Player: Shea Langeliers, c, Baylor. Langeliers’ average at the plate has slumped this year, but his defense has not. He’s thrown out 69.7 percent of runners and now has caught 49 runners in two seasons. He was even better in Big 12 conference play, throwing out 13 of the 16 (81.3%) would-be basestealers.

Best Pitcher: Colton Eastman, rhp, Cal State Fullerton. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthander has a low-90s fastball and two offspeed pitches that can strike hitters out. His curveball has improved and dives one way while his changeup goes the other. He was named the Big West Pitcher of the Year after a 7-0 mark in conference play.

X-Factor: Beck and Bubic bouncing back. Stanford’s frontline duo didn’t finish the season in exactly the fashion they hoped. Will they rebound and return to form after some late-season struggles?

Best Starting Rotation: Stanford. When on, the Cardinal’s rotation is one of the best in the country.

Best Bullpen: Stanford. Even better than its starting rotation, may be Stanford’s bullpen. Jack Little locks down the final outs, collecting 15 saves while striking out 54 in 41 innings, but the Cardinal have five reliable arms it can call upon.

Best Offensive Team: Baylor. Wright State has slightly better numbers, but the Bears have tons of young talent and the collection of Cunningham, Wendzel, Thomas, Langeliers together is an area of the lineup opponents are going to pray to avoid.

Best Defensive Team: Wright State. The Raiders enter the regional ranked No. 5 in the country with a .982 fielding percentage and feature a veteran middle infield and a 6-foot-5 target to throw to at first base.

No. 1 Seed Win Probability (1-10): 4. To be the No. 2 overall seed, the Cardinal did not get a favorable lineup of regional foes. This is no Gainesville Regional. The Cardinal will be tested mightily.

[bballraider]

The PerfectGame.org breaks down each regional. Here is there take on the Stanford Regional:

Stanford, Calif., Regional

1. Stanford (2)
4. Wright State

3. Cal State Fullerton
2. Baylor

The job that first-year head coach David Esquer has done this year after long-time skipper Mark Marquess stepped down cannot be understated. Esquer worked off of the same pitching and defense formula that has allowed Stanford to be successful for as long as they have and made the team even better. They have one of the nation’s best starting trios in Tristan Beck, Kris Bubic and Erik Miller, a very good fourth starter and swing-man in Brendan Beck, as well as one of the nation’s most effective bullpen duos in Jack Little and Jacob Palisch.

Stanford’s offense has been productive as well, with a few somewhat surprising performances from sluggers Kyle Stowers and Andrew Daschbach. Tim Tawa is one of the more athletic players on the West Coast while Nico Hoerner sets the tone on both offense and defense.

Baylor is one of the hotter teams in the nation entering the postseason having won 22 of their last 25 games, including their 4-0 run through the Big 12 Championship. The Bears also have a well-balanced ballclub with a deep, dangerous lineup and a pitching staff that finished the regular season with the best team ERA in the Big 12 (3.19). Cody Bradford is a legit staff ace with numerous effective bullpen components behind him.

This is the time of year when Cal State Fullerton shines the brightest, with a gritty, tried-and-true method of winning games regardless of their competition, representing the Big West in Omaha in both 2015 and 2017. There’s not a ton of pop in the everyday lineup but they grind out at-bats to get on base and manufacture enough runs that gives their pitching staff, led by ace Colton Eastman, the opportunity to win ballgames.

Wright State is one of the more difficult No. 4 seeds in the entire postseason and have two legitimate starters in Ryan Weiss and Zane Collins, while Gabe Snyder and Peyton Burdick give the Raiders a similar 1-2 punch in the middle the lineup. How they fare on the basepaths after stealing 110 bases in 128 attempts this year with Stanford’s star backstop Maverick Handley still injured will be one of the Regional’s more interesting developments.

www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15271

[bballraider]

What I find interesting with all these breakdown/analysis articles, is that none of them seem to mention Caleb Sampen. He seems to be are “ace” in the hole. After a great freshman year (including being freshman of the year in the Horizon, he was a Louisville slugger freshman all-American. After sitting out a year and a half from injuries, he seems to be coming back into great form. He no-hit a decent hitting UIC team in the HL tourney for 6-2/3 innings. He is 5-0 on the year since returning in 6 starts and was leading when he left the other game. I think it might be wise to start Sampen against Stanford and give Weiss the extra day of rest after pitching in two games last weekend. Sampen has also pitched in big games in the past, including winning a game in the Tourney against Ohio State at Illinois regional. I guess we will see what Coach Mercer decides tonight. I think if Weiss feels good he will most likely get the start, but Sampen would not be a bad choice although both should do well in the tourney.

[raiderrunt]

Great stuff bballraider--the ERA of the Raiders certainly gives me pause. We will see if the Raiders "light" competition compared to the other teams fluffed up our numbers a bit. It is a step road to travel, but stranger things have happened. Go Raiders!

[gerb]

Well, that's one way to start a game...

[Raider Gang]

Tied with Stanford at 3 going into the 9th inning.

[Raider Gang]

Going to extra innings

[Raider Gang]

Still tied going into the 11th inning