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Post by bballraider on Nov 5, 2018 13:46:50 GMT -5
Hopefully the men can win the HL tournament and move their way up to a top 16 seed in the NCAA tournament. Top 16 seeds get a first round bye and typically get to host at least 1 game at home.
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Post by mrose on Nov 5, 2018 16:35:54 GMT -5
Hopefully the men can win the HL tournament and move their way up to a top 16 seed in the NCAA tournament. Top 16 seeds get a first round bye and typically get to host at least 1 game at home. That would be nice! However, I don't see that happening. Thru yesterday's games our official RPI was 29. Like most sports, the Horizon LeCrone is holding back the top team in their respective sport. There are only 24 conferences in men's soccer, but the Horizon LeCrone is in the bottom half (14) of conferences like nearly all other sponsored sports in the HL. To be more specific, there are only 206 men's D I soccer programs and invariably, like all D I sports, the Horizon LeCrone has at least 1 program in the BOTTOM 20 and a minimum 30% of HL members in the bottom 1/3 of all D I programs. That said, I don't believe the NCAA uses a S-Curve when seeding. I may be wrong (and probably am when it comes to the top 16 seeds), but I believe "regions" still carry some weight to brackets. In the "region" there are 5 programs (U of L, UK, Michigan State, Indiana, and West Virginia) having higher RPI's and Rankings. WVU, since being blanked by the Raiders in Morgantown, has been on a roll---winning 5 straight and leap frogging us in both RPI and National Rankings. If the NCAA muddles things up, as they typically do, to favor P-5 programs and the Big East then we're screwed...royally. Royally screwed. The NCAA appears to only reference the coaches poll when using a subjective ranking. The coaches poll has a national ranking and 8 regional rankings. However in the regional rankings they have the following: North: IU, Michigan State, West Virginia (outlier). South: Louisville and Notre Dame (outlier). Southeast: Kentucky. East: Creighton (outlier). All but Creighton (RPI #30) have better RPI's and a higher ranking (national) in the Coaches poll. Now, the coaches poll uses "regional rankings" based on conference affiliation (i.e, Creighton in the East and New Mexico in the Southeast), but as sure as I'm typing this the NCAA selection committee will use geographic, conference, student body home states, professor home states or where they earned the Ph.d, and/or geographical reference in a university's name (e.g., North Carolina) in "determining" where to place the P-5 programs to host their region. |
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Post by theleewmowen on Nov 6, 2018 11:05:11 GMT -5
For Thursday's Semi-Final matches:
#1 Wright State will host #6 Milwaukee at 4:00, followed by #2 UIC vs. #5 IUPUI at 7:00.
Both road teams won their Quarterfinal bouts, as Milwaukee silenced Oakland 1-0 and IUPUI edged Green Bay in OT 3-2.
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Post by mrose on Nov 6, 2018 15:11:49 GMT -5
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Post by wsuraider09 on Nov 7, 2018 19:56:30 GMT -5
Lee why wouldn’t we get the night slot? Seems kind of crappy.
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Post by WrightStateFan on Nov 7, 2018 19:59:31 GMT -5
Lee why wouldn’t we get the night slot? Seems kind of crappy. Winner of the first game gets 3 hours more rest before the next round. |
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Post by rock70 on Nov 8, 2018 17:14:38 GMT -5
Raiders up on Milwaukee at half 1-0
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Post by wsutommygun on Nov 8, 2018 17:45:38 GMT -5
I think either Rock is sorry for his post or, is sorry to say it is 1-1 midway thru the 2nd half
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Post by rock70 on Nov 8, 2018 18:07:09 GMT -5
I think either Rock is sorry for his post or, is sorry to say it is 1-1 midway thru the 2nd half Going to overtime. |
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Post by mrose on Nov 8, 2018 18:29:16 GMT -5
Heading to overtime #2...
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Post by bballraider on Nov 8, 2018 18:50:39 GMT -5
Men win 4-3 in penalty kicks play for championship Saturday
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Post by wsutommygun on Nov 8, 2018 19:01:39 GMT -5
Thanks bballraider, the stats didn't know what to do. Thought they were doing a 10 minute 3rd overtime but, stats got to the point that the game was a final...just didn't tell me how.
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Post by wsutommygun on Nov 9, 2018 8:02:42 GMT -5
I was fussing that the guys had to advance on penalty kicks but, whatever it takes.
Turned out the other match also ended 1-1 with UIC advancing on penalty kicks.
Good luck tomorrow, Raiders.
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Post by mrose on Nov 9, 2018 11:11:38 GMT -5
A week or so ago it appeared we were comfortable for an at-large spot if we lost in the HL tournament, now not so much. In fact, it appeared if UIC made it to the finals and lost to the Raiders the Flames were in contention for an at-large too. But things...well one thing...has changed. A drop in RPI for both programs.
As of this morning our daily RPI is #32. UIC's is down to #44. Remember, there are only 48 slots in the soccer tourney with 24 being auto bids. And just like basketball the ACC is going to have a monopoly with at-large spots. By all accounts at least 9 spots in the field. The Big 10 at least 2 spots. C-USA at least 2 spots. The PAC-12 at least 3. The American at least 2 spots. So, the best I can figure out is there are 10-12 at-large spots still in play...
Obviously, we control our own destiny...win and in. Which would be a first for the men's soccer program. In the meantime I'm sure there's going to be a lot of scoreboard watching and rooting for certain results. Below are games of interest that may directly impact Wright State's at-large selection, if needed.
America East Championship...need New Hampshire (RPI #21) #26 (coaches poll) to win at home vs. UMBC (RPI #86)
American Athletic Championship...need UCF (RPI #12) #7 (coaches poll) to win at home vs. SMU (RPI #46) #39 (coaches)
Atlantic 10 semifinals....need Rhode Island (RPI #23) #29 (coaches poll) to win out...tourney held in St. Louis with no Biliken team advancing.
Big East Championship....need Georgetown (RPI #15) #19 (coaches poll...ranked immediately below Raiders) to win in D.C. over Marquette (RPI #89)
Big 10 Semifinals...Need either IU (RPI #2) #2 (coaches) or Maryland (RPI #13) #27 (coaches) to win out....They play each other today. Need winner of Wisconsin (RPI #45) vs. Michigan (RPI #34) in other semi to lose in Championship. Both the Badgers and team up north are receiving votes in the coaches poll.
Big West Championship...Not sure who to root for here. Match is played in Riverside, CA. UC Riverside (RPI #84) vs. UC Davis (RPI #35)...FWIW, probably a 1 bid league, but Davis beat UC Irvine (RPI #17) #30 (coaches) last night. Davis is ranked #6 in the Far West region and ahead of UCLA (RPI #28), but UCLA is ranked #34 nationally in the coaches poll and Davis didn't receive any votes nationally.
CAA semifinals....need UNC-Wilmington (RPI #29) #21 (coaches) to win out. And need James Madison (RPI #42) #35 (coaches) to lose today vs. William & Mary (RPI #105).
C-USA semifinals...need either UK (RPI #8) #3 (coaches) or Charlette (RPI #18) #14 (coaches) to win in their semifinals. Those two programs are in no matter what, but Marshall (RPI #93) and especially Old Dominion (RPI #43) #42 (coaches) can't advance.
MAC semifinals...Need West Virginia (RPI #14) #12 (coaches) to win the whole darn thing. Mountaineers play Akron (RPI #31...1 spot better than WSU) in Morgantown today.
Summit Championship...Need Denver (RPI #16) #9 (coaches) to beat Nebraska-Omaha in Denver.
WAC semifinals....Need The United States Air Force Academy (RPI #20) #13 (coaches) to win out...matches are being held in neutral site--Seattle.
Those 11 conferences could have a direct result whether or not Wright State earns an at-large if needed. One other conference of note is the Big South. High Point (RPI #25) #20 (coaches) lost last night in their semis to 8-8-3 Campbell (RPI #153). I'm sure High Point will be sweating it out until Monday's selection. FWIW, the Big South's RPI is #23 (out of 24) and the HL's is #15. It could come down to whether or not the Big West (RPI #8) as discussed above and the Big South get 2 bids each...
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Post by mrose on Nov 9, 2018 22:33:59 GMT -5
After quite a few conference semifinal matches today--and a couple yet to be played--there is much more clarity to where the RPI cutoff will be for an at-large selection. It will be 35 +/- 3.
That doesn't give the Raiders any wiggle room as our RPI was #32 going into today. A loss, at home, to a UIC club with a RPI of 40+ would most likely put us on the outside looking in.
There should still be some scoreboard watching and nail biting if we fail to lockdown the auto bid...Below are some potential bid stealers.
Rhody held serve today, but needs to beat George Mason Sunday and take the only A-10 bid.
UNC-Wilmington was upset in the CAA, but James Madison won. Both Madison and Wilmington now have high 30's RPI. A Madison loss to Hofstra (RPI #71) would eliminate any potential at-large, but gives Hofstra the auto. It looks like if any conference could steal a bid it may be the CAA...may.
UK and Charlotte both did us a favor and won their respective matches. The UNC-Charlotte win probably sealed ODU's fate to watch the tourney at home.
Akron dominated West Virginia this evening and most likely secured a bid. The Zips play #45 Western Michigan for the MAC auto...we need to root for the Zips. We can't afford 2 conferences to steal a bid.
Air Force was upset by Grand Canyon, but Texas Rio Grande (a.k.a. Texas Pan-American) has a RPI of #37 and they play #91 San Jose St. later tonight. We need Rio Grande to be knocked out of any potential at-large bid.
In the Big West we need UC Riverside to upset UC Davis and knock them out of a potential at-large.
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