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Post by refrigeratorraider on Feb 13, 2021 11:22:08 GMT -5
All hypothetical, but WSU would be the one seed under normal tiebreaker rules if the season ended today. Hard to say that the "new rules" should give us a different result if WSU and CSU win out. WSU 2-0 against #3 Detroit, CSU 0-1. We are number 1 seed at present. If stayed tied we will be #1 because Cleveland State plays Fort Wayne 4 times and UIC zero. This is where strength of schedule comes in play. Winning the regular season championship is now totally on our own shoulders. We got the help needed now we have to win out. Don't forget Cleveland State doesn't play Robert Morris either, the team with the fewest wins in the Horizon League and the lowest winning percentage. No one knows the formula and the seedings have had some really screwy things each week. I don't think it's safe to say WSU is the number one seed at present. |
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 13, 2021 11:30:46 GMT -5
We are number 1 seed at present. If stayed tied we will be #1 because Cleveland State plays Fort Wayne 4 times and UIC zero. This is where strength of schedule comes in play. Winning the regular season championship is now totally on our own shoulders. We got the help needed now we have to win out. Don't forget Cleveland State doesn't play Robert Morris either, the team with the fewest wins in the Horizon League and the lowest winning percentage. No one knows the formula and the seedings have had some really screwy things each week. I don't think it's safe to say WSU is the number one seed at present. Agree 100%. But all things considered, if CSU and WSU win out, the Detroit tiebreaker would normally resolve to WSU being the one seed. If WSU and CSU play a full schedule, and the new format has a different result than the "normal" tiebreaker process, that's some crap. It would be completely different if one of these programs had a pause or missed an impactful number of games, but they didn't. I don't know that it will, but the new math could keep us off the 1 line where we'd have it (as of now) in any other year. |
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Post by refrigeratorraider on Feb 14, 2021 15:14:40 GMT -5
I tried to take a closer look at the HL’s 4 deciding factors for the seeding to see who is likely to be #1, both tomorrow and in the final seedings:
1) League winning percentage: Both teams are 15-3. Advantage: Even
2) Strength of schedule: Cleveland State has not and will not play UIC or Robert Morris. They will play a 2nd series with Purdue Fort Wayne next weekend. Wright State will not play Purdue Fort Wayne and will play Northern Kentucky next weekend. Advantage: As of now – Cleveland State, because the Raiders have not played Northern Kentucky who is likely to be the 3rd seed in the updated seedings. After next week – TBD. If both teams still have the same record, the games against NKU will help WSU’s strength of schedule, but will it be enough? The difference maker will be how UIC and Robert Morris fare. If UIC can sweep Green Bay and Robert Morris somehow pull out a split with Detroit, it could favor the Raiders.
3) Weighting road wins vs home wins: Unlike some teams this season, both WSU and CSU should finish the season with the same number of home and road games. Both are also on the road next week. WSU and CSU both have records of 8-2 (home) and 7-1 (road). Going strictly off records, it is even, but the league could be factoring in who you beat at home and on the road. Cleveland State split with Wright State at the Nutter Center, so that could end up being a difference maker for CSU. Advantage: Even, but possibly a slight advantage to Cleveland State
4) Number of league games played: 18 for both teams. Advantage: Even
Final conclusion: If I were a betting man, my money would be on Cleveland State remaining the number one seed when the updated seedings are released this week. I just don’t see how the Raiders can be #1 when they have yet to play NKU. However, if the teams still have the same records as each other next week, it could be a different story, and may come down to how UIC and Robert Morris close out the season.
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 14, 2021 16:10:46 GMT -5
I tried to take a closer look at the HL’s 4 deciding factors for the seeding to see who is likely to be #1, both tomorrow and in the final seedings: 1) League winning percentage: Both teams are 15-3. Advantage: Even
2) Strength of schedule: Cleveland State has not and will not play UIC or Robert Morris. They will play a 2nd series with Purdue Fort Wayne next weekend. Wright State will not play Purdue Fort Wayne and will play Northern Kentucky next weekend. Advantage: As of now – Cleveland State, because the Raiders have not played Northern Kentucky who is likely to be the 3rd seed in the updated seedings. After next week – TBD. If both teams still have the same record, the games against NKU will help WSU’s strength of schedule, but will it be enough? The difference maker will be how UIC and Robert Morris fare. If UIC can sweep Green Bay and Robert Morris somehow pull out a split with Detroit, it could favor the Raiders. 3) Weighting road wins vs home wins: Unlike some teams this season, both WSU and CSU should finish the season with the same number of home and road games. Both are also on the road next week. WSU and CSU both have records of 8-2 (home) and 7-1 (road). Going strictly off records, it is even, but the league could be factoring in who you beat at home and on the road. Cleveland State split with Wright State at the Nutter Center, so that could end up being a difference maker for CSU. Advantage: Even, but possibly a slight advantage to Cleveland State4) Number of league games played: 18 for both teams. Advantage: EvenFinal conclusion: If I were a betting man, my money would be on Cleveland State remaining the number one seed when the updated seedings are released this week. I just don’t see how the Raiders can be #1 when they have yet to play NKU. However, if the teams still have the same records as each other next week, it could be a different story, and may come down to how UIC and Robert Morris close out the season. I'd like to restate that in any other season, if the season ended today, WSU would be the #1 seed via the Detroit tiebreaker. WSU and CSU have both played a full schedule. The new ranking system giving a different result, in my opinion, is horse shit. This should resolve issues with teams who have shortened league schedules, and neither team has that problem. Hopefully it's a moot point and by the end of next week, for one reason or another, it shakes itself out, but if we win out, still have the "normal" tiebreaker, and end up with the #2 seed, then the league has screwed the pooch. |
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 15, 2021 12:01:39 GMT -5
Cue up the discussion; does sweeping NKU move us ahead of CSU?
Raiders current wins: 1,3,5,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9,11,11,12,12 avg = 7.6
Vikings current wins: 2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,7,7,8,9,9,10,10 avg = 6.1
Raiders current losses: 1, 3, 5 avg = 3
Vikings current losses: 2, 6, 8 avg = 5.3
Raiders have two home losses to teams 1 and 5.
Vikings have two home losses to teams 6 and 8.
Next weekend assuming sweeps, WSU could move their average to a better position of 7.2
Next weekend assuming sweeps, CSU could move their average to a worse position of 6.6
All of this math assumes that teams don't change next week, which they assuredly will. It just makes me feel like the only way we end up with the #1 seed (which we can all agree isn't critical by any stretch) is that CSU loses next week. It just irks me a bit that under normal tiebreakers, we would be the 1 seed, and we're getting the short end of the stick by this new metric. The fact that CSU didn't play UIC or RMU and we didn't play IPFW shouldn't be costing us the seed we would normally receive.
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Post by classof94 on Feb 15, 2021 17:45:16 GMT -5
I don’t know if it makes a huge difference between the 1 seed and the 2 seed in regards to the tournament but what does it mean for the NIT?Assuming they have the NIT this year and let’s say both CSU and WSU get upset in the HL tourney, does the NIT bid go to the 1 seed? I’m guessing it would. It would be a shame if this Raider team didn’t get to play in a post-season tournament.
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Post by wsuraider12 on Feb 15, 2021 17:56:10 GMT -5
I don’t know if it makes a huge difference between the 1 seed and the 2 seed in regards to the tournament but what does it mean for the NIT?Assuming they have the NIT this year and let’s say both CSU and WSU get upset in the HL tourney, does the NIT bid go to the 1 seed? I’m guessing it would. It would be a shame if this Raider team didn’t get to play in a post-season tournament. Maybe it won’t matter at all. |
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 15, 2021 19:28:04 GMT -5
Cleveland State fan here and I come in peace.
I’ve been doing some projections over on the CSU board and assuming we finish with the same record, I see the formula benefitting CSU ever so slightly. As mentioned above, it could come down to the placement of UIC, PFW and RMU. But honestly, even with those teams aligning to favor WSU, CSU played the absolute hardest possible road game that either WSU or CSU could’ve played, and WSU played the easiest possible game (against RMU) that CSU didn’t play. I think that alone would be enough to make the difference in a very tight calculation.
I’m curious to hear your thoughts on if you disagree, and if so, where do you see WSU having the advantage in terms of the formula?
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 15, 2021 19:39:09 GMT -5
I tried to take a closer look at the HL’s 4 deciding factors for the seeding to see who is likely to be #1, both tomorrow and in the final seedings: 1) League winning percentage: Both teams are 15-3. Advantage: Even
2) Strength of schedule: Cleveland State has not and will not play UIC or Robert Morris. They will play a 2nd series with Purdue Fort Wayne next weekend. Wright State will not play Purdue Fort Wayne and will play Northern Kentucky next weekend. Advantage: As of now – Cleveland State, because the Raiders have not played Northern Kentucky who is likely to be the 3rd seed in the updated seedings. After next week – TBD. If both teams still have the same record, the games against NKU will help WSU’s strength of schedule, but will it be enough? The difference maker will be how UIC and Robert Morris fare. If UIC can sweep Green Bay and Robert Morris somehow pull out a split with Detroit, it could favor the Raiders. 3) Weighting road wins vs home wins: Unlike some teams this season, both WSU and CSU should finish the season with the same number of home and road games. Both are also on the road next week. WSU and CSU both have records of 8-2 (home) and 7-1 (road). Going strictly off records, it is even, but the league could be factoring in who you beat at home and on the road. Cleveland State split with Wright State at the Nutter Center, so that could end up being a difference maker for CSU. Advantage: Even, but possibly a slight advantage to Cleveland State4) Number of league games played: 18 for both teams. Advantage: EvenFinal conclusion: If I were a betting man, my money would be on Cleveland State remaining the number one seed when the updated seedings are released this week. I just don’t see how the Raiders can be #1 when they have yet to play NKU. However, if the teams still have the same records as each other next week, it could be a different story, and may come down to how UIC and Robert Morris close out the season. I'd like to restate that in any other season, if the season ended today, WSU would be the #1 seed via the Detroit tiebreaker. WSU and CSU have both played a full schedule. The new ranking system giving a different result, in my opinion, is horse shit. This should resolve issues with teams who have shortened league schedules, and neither team has that problem. Hopefully it's a moot point and by the end of next week, for one reason or another, it shakes itself out, but if we win out, still have the "normal" tiebreaker, and end up with the #2 seed, then the league has screwed the pooch. I also came to counter this point as I disagree with the logic. This isn’t a normal year where each team played each other home and away. CSU beat WSU on the road on its first try and then didn’t have a chance to play WSU at home like they would in a normal year. It’s not out of the question that CSU could have won a second game at home. In that case, CSU is in first place by a full game plus they would have the head-to-head tie breaker. It’s also not apples to apples when looking at which shared opponents teams beat this year as a tie-breaker because, again, there is a disparity in where those games took place. Plus, as we’ve seen, it’s impossible to determine where teams should be in the standings when they have a different amount of games played. Do we go by the formula to decide which team is in third for the tie-breaker but then go back to a “normal” tie breaker for first and second? Not to mention, this entire argument is assuming that Detroit finishes above Oakland, but if you go by the “formula” standings right now, CSU has the advantage with Oakland and YSU both ahead of Detroit. |
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Post by wsuraider09 on Feb 15, 2021 19:43:39 GMT -5
Cleveland State fan here and I come in peace. I’ve been doing some projections over on the CSU board and assuming we finish with the same record, I see the formula benefitting CSU ever so slightly. As mentioned above, it could come down to the placement of UIC, PFW and RMU. But honestly, even with those teams aligning to favor WSU, CSU played the absolute hardest possible road game that either WSU or CSU could’ve played, and WSU played the easiest possible game (against RMU) that CSU didn’t play. I think that alone would be enough to make the difference in a very tight calculation. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on if you disagree, and if so, where do you see WSU having the advantage in terms of the formula? It's not going to matter. CSU is going to get the #1 seed because their RMU series was canceled and they didn't play UIC. WSU avoided IPFW, which is a substantially better team than the two teams CSU avoided. CSU will have a higher conference difficulty schedule (see my post above), and even though CSU lost to worse teams, and lost at home to worse teams, the formula apprars to be skewed based on SOS (as evidenced by Oakland being 3). Obviously we are all less than thrilled. Our net is over 100 points better (an official NCAA metric), we've constantly been in the mid major top 25 (up to 7), we are receiving AP votes, and we currently hold the "normal year" tiebreaker, but, ya know, magic formula.. |
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Post by frankiemeatballs on Feb 15, 2021 20:41:29 GMT -5
Cleveland State fan here and I come in peace. I’ve been doing some projections over on the CSU board and assuming we finish with the same record, I see the formula benefitting CSU ever so slightly. As mentioned above, it could come down to the placement of UIC, PFW and RMU. But honestly, even with those teams aligning to favor WSU, CSU played the absolute hardest possible road game that either WSU or CSU could’ve played, and WSU played the easiest possible game (against RMU) that CSU didn’t play. I think that alone would be enough to make the difference in a very tight calculation. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on if you disagree, and if so, where do you see WSU having the advantage in terms of the formula? It's not going to matter. CSU is going to get the #1 seed because their RMU series was canceled and they didn't play UIC. WSU avoided IPFW, which is a substantially better team than the two teams CSU avoided. CSU will have a higher conference difficulty schedule (see my post above), and even though CSU lost to worse teams, and lost at home to worse teams, the formula apprars to be skewed based on SOS (as evidenced by Oakland being 3). Obviously we are all less than thrilled. Our net is over 100 points better (an official NCAA metric), we've constantly been in the mid major top 25 (up to 7), we are receiving AP votes, and we currently hold the "normal year" tiebreaker, but, ya know, magic formula.. Detroit being in a position to decide the “normal” year tie-breaker this year is precisely the reason we needed a new way to determine the seeds IMO. Detroit is in 4th place in the normal standings. But they missed 4 games which were losable to Milwaukee and UIC. They also hosted GB for 2 instead of making the trip to Wisconsin. In a normal year, the Wisconsin trip can always be dicey. It’s very possible that with a normal schedule Detroit would have 2-3 more losses (or more because the 4 missed games came when they were playing poorly). And you can go down every team’s schedule and make some sort of case of how a normal schedule would have likely produced different results. I’m no fan of the secret formula, but I feel like I can make a pretty strong case for why 9-win Oakland should be ahead of 8-win Detroit in the standings even without the formula. I understand being skeptical of the formula and being less than thrilled with currently being behind CSU. Obviously WSU has a much stronger standing by the national ratings metrics and there’s no debate there. But as you know, RPI/NET and AP votes have never factored into the tie-breaker. I think it’s fair to say that CSU could/would have the tie-breaker in a normal year (or not even be tied if CSU beats WSU at home). So it’s disingenuous to say that WSU is being screwed by the formula. |
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Post by 5string on Feb 15, 2021 20:54:26 GMT -5
I would ASSUME the coaches/ ADs know something about the formula, but I don't really understand why the HL is keeping it such a big secret.
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Post by Hoops Junkie on Feb 15, 2021 21:30:03 GMT -5
I would ASSUME the coaches/ ADs know something about the formula, but I don't really understand why the HL is keeping it such a big secret. I honestly don't think there is a formula. I think the HL is going to do what the HL wants to do and use their so called secret formula to hide that fact. It's just like how they had a bidding process for the HL tournament that said the home court of any HL team was not eligible for the tournament yet they awarded the tournament to IUPUI. NKU wanted to host it on their home court and put together a better offer but was shot down. Dayton put in a better offer to host it and was shot down. LeCrone wanted the tournament in Indy and he got his wish despite his so called rules. At the end of the day, they made their formula secret so that they can do what they want to do. |
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Post by keithfromxenia on Feb 15, 2021 22:40:35 GMT -5
So let me get this straight Frankie. We cannot use the national metrics because we have never used them before. We can use this cockamamie system the hl created that we have......,.,wait for it.......,never used before. makes sense!!! leave it to the hl to create a bizarre system instead of using an easily measurable thing like the net, used for postseason selections.
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Post by Big D on Feb 15, 2021 23:08:52 GMT -5
At the end of the day, it is what it is. If both schools win out then we are regular season co-champs. The 1-4 seeds have the same practical advantage to one another. If anything I think it helps our team to get the 2 seed. I think it will piss them off and give them a little more motivation going into the HL tournament. It also takes the NIT off the table which takes away that fall back option of post season play which should be another motivating factor. The only way to get into the post season is to win the HL tournament. We need that mentality.
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