Horizon League Tournament

[wsuwillie]

We have our work cut out for us with the last 4 games on the road and against 3 teams either slightly above us or right below us at the moment. Knocking off NKU tonight would be great to keep up the streak.

I didn't yet look at the remaining schedules of the teams near us in the standings as it feels a little early to get all worked up about that. (Other than knowing that after Sunday, NKU plays the same schedule that we do so the standings can shift a lot after each road trip.) What I did find odd is that a 6th place finish would have us play IUPUI at the Nutt and then the #3 seed on the road. What's weird though is that the 5th seed gets a first-round bye but has to play the #4 seed on the road. So...not sure that finishing 5th is really that much better than finishing 6th especially depending on how we match-up against whomever is the 3rd or 4th - or even 5th - seed. (Yeah...it's an extra game, but we can stomp IUPUI without burning up any player with minutes.)

This will be an interesting end to the season...again.

[wsuraider09]

The road is tough and the hill to climb is pretty tall. Most of the teams ahead of us are playing a lot of home games (we're the first HL team to have senior day fwiw, NKU obviously second).

We need some help from GB, RMU, DET, and IUPUI to pull some upsets to muddy the waters. At the end of the day, nobody is going to want to see us in the tournament. We're having an off year, but we've got a 1st team PG and the team seems to be firing more efficiently as of late. More analysis coming from my end, but there's a big logjam ahead of us, but we don't control our own destiny. The good news is we've got games against 3,4,and 5 coming up and we have to keep the hot up the hot road play.

[willgrahamsbanked3]

I'm with you, this team can still end up as a top-4 seed, but as long as they finish in the top 7 they've got a chance to make some noise in the tournament.

This opinion may change tonight...but as of right now NKU (on the road) is worst case quaterfinal scenario for WSU imo.

[wsuraider09]

Big one tonight for first place, and potentially major impact for tiebreaking scenarios. Milwaukee and YSU are tied atop the standings and will clash tonight at Beeghly (YSU -9.5). Winner of this game is in the driver seat to the #1 seed. Milwaukee won the first matchup at Panther Arena in January. Read on how this has MAJOR implications to our playoff seeding...

Big implications for us tonight as well. With our sweep over Milwaukee, we have strong interest in them winning the league. We would have a tiebreaker over any teams we split with (potentially Oakland and CSU). Make no mistake, we're Panther fans tonight. YSU clinches a guaranteed top-4 seed with a home victory tonight. Milwaukee gets close with a win, but the rest of the weekend has to shake out first.

At the end of the day, we almost control our own destiny to a top-4 seed. Winning out gives us a great chance of a top-4 seed and hosting that second round game. Winning out deals a loss to Oakland (who is just ahead of us), and Cleveland State (also ahead of us). Adding in that NKU still has to play both of those teams as well, there's a lot of ways that WSU, NKU, and CSU all end up tied at 13-7 if we win out. How tonight's YSU/Milwaukee game ends up may very well determine how that tiebreaker falls. Assuming CSU, NKU, and WSU all end up tied (and all the teams split 1-1), we'd go to the top-down tiebreaker that we'd win if Milwaukee won the league. Both NKU and CSU have victories over YSU whereas we don't, so we'd fall to 5 and have to play whoever won the third or fourth tiebreaker that could come to results against WSU or Oakland for CSU and NKU (very confusing I know)....

Having said all of that, that's how winning out doesn't give us a guaranteed top-4 seed. However, the chips fall much more favorably for us if Milwaukee wins tonight (and wins out), and if we win out. If both of those happen, based on my math, we're a top-4 seed, and quite likely, the 3 seed. For what it's worth, I don't know that YSU or Milwaukee face a loss after tonight as they're schedules are pretty favorable in my eyes.

All of that to say, Go Panthers and Go Raiders!

[raiderrunt]

Thanks 09 for reminding me to watch Milwaukee/YSU game.

[wsuraider09]

Obviously things didn't go our way last night with YSU absolutely romping Milwaukee. YSU is in the drivers' seat for the one seed and finishes with 3 games they should win (vs GB, @ RMU, @ IUPUI). Milwaukee has fallen a to a 3-way tie for second with CSU and NKU. If the season ended today, Milwaukee would have the 2 seed having not lost to either CSU or NKU, though they still have to play CSU again.

For your rooting interest today, it's Detroit to beat Oakland (game is at the O'Rena, Oakland is a 2 point favorite) and PFW to upset NKU (NKU is a 3 point favorite). Either of those would help us, but what we really need is a Raider victory. If both NKU wins tonight and we lose, the hill becomes tremendously difficult for us to get a top-4 seed.

[wsuraider09]

After tonight's epic failure up in Cleveland, the only hope we have for a top 4 seed (not that we played like we actually wanted one) is if we win out and Milwaukee loses their remaining 3 games. We'd end up tied with Milwaukee at 4th, and we'd win a tiebreaker over them for the 4th spot. Tieing with CSU is a no-go due to the season sweep, and tieing with NKU is also a no-go because they have a win over YSU.

So at this point, is it better to be the 5 seed playing at (most likely) CSU or NKU, or is it better to limp in as 6 or 7 and play a home game against IUPUI or Green Bay, both of which have looked better as of late. It looks like we need 1 win in our last 3 to ensure a home game, and probably 2 wins (one over Oakland) to get that 5 seed road game.

I certainly wouldn't mind a home game, but there's a part of me that thinks we could take CSU on a better executed gameplan kind of night, and we all know we figured out NKU's zone last time out, though that'd be a road game.

[wsuraider09]

YSU and Cleveland State have clinched top 4 seeds.

Wright State has been eliminated in the hunt for a top 4 seed, but can still earn the 5 seed by winning at Oakland and Detroit next weekend paired with an RMU loss next weekend (vs YSU, at IUPUI).

The remaining two top-4 seeds are still up in the air between NKU, Milwaukee, and Oakland. If the season ended today, we'd have YSU, CSU, Milwaukee, and NKU in that order 1-4.

We're currently in an ugly 3-way tie with RMU and Detroit, though we currently win that tiebreaker (and would be the 6 seed hosting IUPUI if the season ended today)

[raiders93]

YSU is going down to Robert Morris. That final game, CSU vs Milwaukee could be the tie breaker if I’m not mistaken.

[wsuraider09]

Feb 21, 2023 20:48:05 GMT -5 raiders93 said:

YSU is going down to Robert Morris. That final game, CSU vs Milwaukee could be the tie breaker if I’m not mistaken.

That was quite an unexpected result last night. Technically, YSU remains up half a game, but only plays one game this weekend where everyone else atop the standings is playing two. Assuming they beat IUPUI in that game (doesn't seem like something we should bank on at this point), they'd move to 15-5. If Cleveland State sweeps the Wisconsin road trip this weekend, they'd also be 15-5. Those two teams split on the season, so the tiebreakers then go down the HL final standings. How that gets decided would depend on how teams 3-4-5 all seed out.

CSU beats YSU if the 3rd place team is NKU via their 2-0 season series versus YSU's 1-1.
Milwaukee holds a tiebreaker over NKU via their sweep of the Norse, and both sit at 12-6, however, the model above assume a Milwaukee loss to CSU, which would put them a game behind NKU, unless NKU were to drop one of their final 2 games (@det, @oak).

So the Vikings need to win out and hope NKU wins their final 2, and they earn the one seed (even though it seems that HL still recognizes co-championships if two teams are tied).
Obviously Youngstown needs to beat IUPUI and hope that CSU drops one of their remaining two. If that happens, YSU would win the league at 15-5, with everyone else having at least 6 losses.

For the Raiders, nothing has changed. We really need to win out. The RMU victory over YSU moves RMU ahead of us by half a game (with only one to play), however, it also moves them ahead of us in the tiebreaker scenarios. With a win against IUPUI in their final game, the Colonials will lock us out of 4/5 game, even if we beat Oakland. As is stands now, we beat Detroit in a tiebreaker for the 7 seed and would host Green Bay, but there are plenty of ways we actually fall to 9 and open the tournament on the road (potentially at Detroit, PFW, RMU, or Oakland). We really need to finish the regular season strong.

Nothing will be worse than being in contention for the 2 seed a week ago, finishing 0-4, and opening the league tournament on the road as a 9 seed. One more team to root against this weekend is PFW. They're on our heels and swept the season series and are in good position to overtake us if we can't get out of our own way this weekend.

[keithfromxenia]

09, that may be the most depressing reading I have done in a long, long time.

[kingnebwsu]

WSU is ranked #337 out of 363 Division 1 teams in KenPom's "luck" ranking. Luck "is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record."

I searched this out because I wanted validation for what has seemed like a ton of close losses this year.

Regardless of seed this WSU team is capable of winning the Horizon League tournament although the most likely result is a quarterfinal exit. I hope they can at least play well this weekend to get 1-2 wins and build some momentum heading into the Tournament.

[wsuraider09]

NKU has secured a top-4 seed with their victory over Detroit this evening. Milwaukee can clinch a top-4 seed if they finish off Purdue-Fort Wayne tonight.

[wsuraider09]

Some good results in the league tonight (obviously we didn't get the W in Oakland...)

IUPUI upsets RMU to end their season at 10-10. IUPUI finishes with a home game against YSU (more on that later).
Milwaukee really throws us a bone and slips by PFW. That puts PFW at 8-11, and keeps them firmly behind us.

Not to over-complicate things, but if we win at Detroit, we're hosting a first round game either as the 6 or the 7 (would depend on how the RMU tie breaker falls which depends on the final standings, but the 7 is more likely). A Raider loss to Detroit puts us in a 3-way tie with Detroit (would lose due to sweep) and potentially PFW (unless they lose to Green Bay on Saturday, and would lose due to sweep) and we'd fall to 9, and have to play on the road at PFW because they'd lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Detroit and would finish 8th with Detroit 7th.

As the 7, we'd host Green Bay. If we got the 6 via tiebreaker, we'd host IUPUI. If we lose and tumble, we're at Detroit or PFW depending on the PFW at Green Bay result.
All in all, we didn't get a win tonight, but Milwaukee really helped us out by keeping PFW squarely below us. Of course, all of this is incredibly disappointing based on our last 3 games, but I figure the information is beneficial to some of you. I think the only path to the 8 seed would be a loss in Detroit AND a PFW loss at Green Bay, and that would result in our hosting PFW.

Oakland has locked up the 5 seed and will play at whoever ends up 4.

[frankiemeatballs]

Feb 22, 2023 9:26:55 GMT -5 wsuraider09 said:

Feb 21, 2023 20:48:05 GMT -5 raiders93 said:

YSU is going down to Robert Morris. That final game, CSU vs Milwaukee could be the tie breaker if I’m not mistaken.

That was quite an unexpected result last night. Technically, YSU remains up half a game, but only plays one game this weekend where everyone else atop the standings is playing two. Assuming they beat IUPUI in that game (doesn't seem like something we should bank on at this point), they'd move to 15-5. If Cleveland State sweeps the Wisconsin road trip this weekend, they'd also be 15-5. Those two teams split on the season, so the tiebreakers then go down the HL final standings. How that gets decided would depend on how teams 3-4-5 all seed out.

CSU beats YSU if the 3rd place team is NKU via their 2-0 season series versus YSU's 1-1.
Milwaukee holds a tiebreaker over NKU via their sweep of the Norse, and both sit at 12-6, however, the model above assume a Milwaukee loss to CSU, which would put them a game behind NKU, unless NKU were to drop one of their final 2 games (@det, @oak).

So the Vikings need to win out and hope NKU wins their final 2, and they earn the one seed (even though it seems that HL still recognizes co-championships if two teams are tied).

CSU fan here. I appreciate the effort it takes to compile these scenarios. I’ve been doing the same updates over on our board. I wish we’d get this from the league office.

One slight edit to your work that actually makes a big difference. CSU also split the season series with NKU. If CSU beats Milwaukee and YSU beats IUPUI, the tiebreaker would move down to Oakland, which CSU would lose. CSU needed RMU to move ahead of Oakland, or Oakland and RMU to tie and PFW to move ahead of Detroit. Last night’s results made both scenarios impossible, which means CSU can no longer win a tiebreaker.